churchill

With $1.75t valuation & ~$16b in revenues, that's just over 100* revenues. SpaceX recently announced $8b in EBITDA, but I don't think it's a healthy metric for such a hardware-heavy business. Or, like Charlie Munger calls it, BS earnings.

Even if you give SpaceX the benefit of the doubt and assume they'll eventually settle at the profit rates Apple, Google, etc. have (~25%, check it), it'll be $4b in annual profits holding up $1.8t in market cap or roughly 450 PE ratio.

And that's if we give them the same great odds for profitability as America's most successful and profitable firms.

In summary, in the short-term the stock might very likely shoot up to $3t, but in the long-term, it doesn't look very healthy.

I'm happy with how the Overton Window on the US being completely subservient to Israel is shifting. A few years ago, this would have gotten you denounced as antisemitic, but now it's a common position even normies hold that no matter the issue, the US will take the position that favors Israel the most, no matter how it hurts American interests and endangers or outright kills their citizens.

Even if Iran gets 500 years to build out a proper technological economy, there's no universe where they're a threat to the US. All the players the US has invaded the Middle East to fight don't constitute a threat to Joe in Alabama. It's all about weakening potential threats to leave Israel as the only extant regional power, no matter the costs to American credibility, military stockpiles, finances ($10t so far, according to Brown University Costs of War).

The overton Window has shifted and this question will not go away.