casercaramel144

Finance SWE here, sorry if what I say is wrong. Please correct me if that's the case.

>And yet UPRO (3X SPY) has significantly outperformed 3X the S&P 500 since inception (since June 2009 UPRO is +8000% vs SPY +700%.

Isn't this just hindsight bias? You market time to right after 2008 crash. Those two dates are probably the best possible because from 2009->2020 we had an 11 year uninterrupted bull run. If you bought in 2020-2021 you would have been screwed for 3 years at the least. If you bought 10x levered out of the money spy calls every 6 months and roll the winnings since 2009 you probably can get even higher, but probably you don't want to do that.

>Respectfully those are much more expensive and if you're near the money quite non-linear. You're going to have to pony up pretty close to the price of just buying the index again to get 2X exposure if you're deep ITM. Near the money you'll need several options to get 2X - and you'll need to delta rebalance. You'll also get eaten alive by theta decay.

Isn't this for retirement saving? IE where we have big chunks of cash we won't see for 20 years, so you can buy like 2 contracts and its good enough. You'd have to pony up 2x to get the underlying index fund anyways, so you might as well just buy deep ITM calls (which right now are hovering at a premium of 3% for strike of 315$ on spy).

+1 for European options, I forgot you can buy those on index funds, is the liquidity enough on deep OTM calls to be worth it though?

>To avoid having to pony up a ton of collateral or get eaten by theta, you may as well just buy more SPY on margin - or save yourself the hassle and get an /ES=F or /MES=F. I thought margin / borrowing costs for future etfs is some ridiculous 8-12%. Pretty bad if you have no alpha except beta go up!

Anecdotally (can't say how I know), many firms did very well in the 2020-2021 Covid crash, also its quite cheap to say buy 50 million in far OTM puts to guard against black swan events. It's far more likely that a slow slide in SPY will show some Beta correlation than anything else.

That's a really bad idea, those rebalance daily, so you are basically betting against short-term volatility (if spy goes down 10% in a day then up 10% the next, you are down 1% on spy, on a 2x levered etf you are down 4% or 4x the loss). Also both fees and slippage are really terrible on all levered ETFs

If you really want to do 2x lever its probably best to just buy 6 month or 1 yr dated ITM calls. They're quite cheap and very liquid on SPY.

We will see. :-)

You didn't actually argue against the point though. How is it obvious that raising the minimum wage benefits all Americans? The people making wage already don't "have any money" yet the economy is fine anyways since they don't make up the majority of spending. Debt has been high forever.

Marx is right, the only thing that matters is labor + capex to create products / services. If rich people want to move money around buying expensive crap that's marginally better and isn't too much harder to produce, we should encourage that. As of now, most of the S&P 500 focuses on producing products for the common man or other businesses. This is exactly what you'd want to see and I don't see why we should rock the boat and reduce the total labor spent on the needs of the average person (minimum wage labor).

This is straight up an unfair characterization. It's not "slaves making nothing at all", its fair value for their labor as decided by supply and demand. The issue you're highlighting shouldn't be solved by trying to legislate the market to oblivion which always introduces side effects. Just hand everyone a UBI payment a month and be done with it.

Why is this the case? It's well known that ML models are almost always gameable if you know the weights. What right do you have to their algo?

Why not? The contractors know before directly accepting a contract it's value, they can choose to not accept it if they think they're being underpaid?

Except this is how things work at basically all companies? Compensation decisions are secret and only known at offer time, I don't think I've worked for a single company where the specific executive decision reasoning for an offer is given.

But the worker knows exactly what the job is worth at the point of acceptance. Did you actually read the article? The issue is that the offered amount is decided algorithmically through an opaque process not that the worker doesn't know how much they will get paid for it.

A specific user can decide whether or not to take a specific delivery with full information. Following your analogy, it'd be like using some opaque algorithm to set the offer amount when hiring for a job, which is pretty much what happens today.

You are bounded by the fact that the statement is provable. Let a statement M be provable with a proof length K. By contradiction, if K is non finite, the statement must not be provable. Thus, there must be some positive integer K s.t. the proof length < K. Thus, it suffices to enumerate all proofs of length < K.

Insofar as we are given provability, we can solve halting.

I was curious as to how it works, so I implemented here: turingmachine.io/?import-gist=c862f28918f3d889f964797694d28fcc

If you run it for a bit you see what's going on, State B turns 0's into 2's and 1's into 1's transitioning to C and state C turns 3 -> 2's and transitions to A. So you just iteratively lengthen your run of 3's exponentially since it requires a full pass through all the 3's to fix a 2->1.

Since that's nearly certainly less efficient at population expansion compared to physical violence. Conservatively, modern humans seem to settle at having 2~4 children per woman but historically it was not uncommon to have families of size exceeding 10.

The whole point is that if you accept the fact that expanding population is good a priori, this leads to stupid conclusions by the tyranny of exponential growth. Who cares if the average person is a slave when you have several hundred billion of them. Who cares if mothers die horribly after being forced to carry child after child.

Personally I think the only consistent viewpoint is some form of logarithmic population * average well being metric to measure utility. From that perspective, I have no clue how a policy maker should act today. Hopefully smarter minds than mine figure it out!

So by the tyranny of exponential growth, we should just start building massive breeding factories and forceably enslaving people randomly matching them to have children? Because this could actually be the optimal policy if we take your view of "second persons" to it's optimum.

In your world governments forceably breed humans like chickens in massive factory farms churning out people to the carrying capacity of the planet. I don't want to live there and I sure as hell don't find it moral.

I mean yeah. Not existing has a utility value of 0. You can make the same argument for people who don't exist yet. Is it infinite utility to go around as a government and force people to pump out 100 babies a year? Since not existing is so bad?

TBH if I never existed by definition I would be fine with it, you know, since I don't exist and was never born. I don't think its coherent to measure things from aggregate utilitarian POV, since the optimal solution seems relentless expansionism like a virus.