bzhang255

Joined 3 years ago

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Dec 31

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Isn't that kind of how society works? i.e. If a senior employee benefitted from having close mentorship and a strong social network when they were a junior, then they may wish to pay it forward by being present and mentoring juniors now that they're a senior.

Comment · 5 months ago

Disclaimer: I have not read any literature on the economics of prediction markets, and I know nothing about the mechanics of Polymarket/Kalshi.

I would imagine that in theory, everyone thinks they have the best information at the time, something like:

House: "Odds that X happens? We'll put $1 on both sides to get it started. 50/50."

Someone comes along: "Oh dang, I'm definitely more than 50% confident that X is happening. Let me put $1 in." Now it's 67:33.

Someone else comes along: "Oh I'm more than 67% confident X is happening, let me put $1 in." Now it's 75:25.

And of course, you get people going: "I'm more than 25% confident that X is _not_ happening, let me put $1 in!" And now it's 60:40.

The murky part, I would imagine, comes when the odds and the payout actually act as something that influences the outcome, but in perfect theory-land, if everything goes as planned, this should move the odds to the most informationally-accurate measurement, which should, in theory, benefit observers by making this measurement public.

Comment · 1 year ago

None of this is wrong, but anecdotally, I will say that there are still human beings playing poker online, and a better human being can still win in the long run. (Though, live poker is much more fun)

Comment · 1 year ago

I feel obliged to point anyone interested to Proust on Vermeer: https://www.essentialvermeer.com/proust/proust.html

Comment · 2 years ago

For people who suffer from anxiety, there already exists a plethora of anti-anxiety medication, both short-term and long-term.

Comment · 2 years ago

I think it's shallow and not because it's short. To me, it just sounds very typical: "I joined Google back when it was fun. Now it's more bureaucratic and less fun. But I made a ton of money on the stock." I think there have been countless blog posts from Ex-Googlers like this. It's fairly shallow.

And it is worth noting that a lot of the bullet point lists do start with "I made a ton of money" in as many words, which is also just not very interesting to most folks, though it is certainly very relevant and important to the writer.

Comment · 2 years ago

Acknowledgements have a quality which is hard to describe.
They feel like they’ve been drafted a hundred times in the head of the author, but then put down on the page in a hurry, the clock ticking on their deadline.

Like, they’re trying to tell you the most important thing they’ve ever said - at the very moment the ship is pulling away from the dock.

A lovely read. I also have an affinity for dissertation acknowledgements and I think this entire piece really captures why they feel so special :)

Comment · 2 years ago

I would agree with suggesting Dalloway before To The Lighthouse, because I think Dalloway is generally more concrete and attainable. To The Lighthouse takes Woolf's characteristic stream-of-consciousness interiority a step further and can also be very roundabout in its approach to the "thing" that a character is actually thinking about or trying to say. It's also a bit more experimental in its form, and can be overall a bit harder to "grasp". I think someone new to Woolf would benefit from having Dalloway as an opportunity not only to get used to her style of writing, which will help smooth the learning curve if you decide to read To The Lighthouse, but also to form a judgement of her in a more "typical" setting so that you can decide if she merits your working through her more experimental works. Cheers.

Comment · 2 years ago

Anxiety is a somewhat overloaded word, in my opinion, because while you're right that everyone experiences "anxiety", there's a distinction between that and an anxiety disorder, which is recognized as a very real mental health issue. This is also why I suspect that letting people self-report will result in overestimating people suffering from anxiety disorders as a mental health issue, vs experiencing regular anxiety.

Comment · 2 years ago

Anxiety is considered a mental health issue by both the featured article and by NIMH, and considering that the 87.7% figure is self-reported, it's probably overestimated.

Comment · 2 years ago

Well, also according to the article itself :)