bgroat

We're 90%... we're almost half way there!

For me it feels more like a rinse.

My brain feels cloudy/covered in junk. Then I rest and can kind of feel all the crap being hosed away

This has been commonly known by magicians for decades. I doubt that any single magician had conducted 350k flips, but I know I personally did ~2,500 to test the effect when I was a kid.

And I'm sure if you got 30 magicians together to pool data we'd have a meta-analysis of about this size but with experiments a century ago

I'm not an Orson Scott Card fan generally, but I LOVED his Shadow Series (the world of Ender's Game from the perspective of Bean).

In one of the books in the Shadow Series Bean explains his leadership style as:

"I will always explain why something is important, and why we're doing it this particular way... The reason for this is that if we ever find ourselves in a situation where I CAN'T give orders you know what I prioritize and how I might think of something... furthermore, if we're in a situation where I CAN give orders but DON'T explain you will understand that it's simply because I do not have time, but presumably have good reasons, and will proceed to immediately execute said orders"

It appears this emergency room operated in a similar capacity

Literally whenever someone crosses my mind I shoot them a text, "Hey zokier, I was thinking about ya! Hope you're well!"

Trivially easy and people treat me like I have social super powers

Not only is it nearly impossible to use anywhere... but a huge component of BTC's mythology is making fun of someone who ACTUALLY spent it as money (Bitcoin Pizza)

Everyone's life is completely different, and their choices are their own. It seems you made the right choice for yourself, and I hope your kids agree.

I will say though, I think there's a chicken and egg element in this line of thinking.

A part of my thinks that being childless in twenties provides space that facilitates being a basket-case.

I think that having a child immediately makes most people at least 50% more responsible, and 85%+ within a year.

Again, there's a huge range here for people who: - Never get better - Their 85%+ still isn't really responsible enough.

Unsolicited 2 cents from a guy who had a kid in his twenties

I think for a lot of people (me included), the primary advantage is in ease of measurement.

It's hard to count calories accurately.

It's very easy to look at the clock and determine if it's between 1300-1900 hours

This was the point that founder friend was making.

It's hard to look someone in the eye and say they're done

A founder friend confided in me years ago, "It is MUCH easier to raise more money than it is to fire someone... I just keep raising and hiring and eventually everything will get done"

No surprise that this approach was very much a "Low-Rates Phenomenon"

I'm not a historian, archeologist, or any sort of relevant expert.

But I've long had the pet theory that the Green Sahara is the origin of the Eden Myth.

Homo Sapiens origin, lush vegetation, turns to dessert for some reason beyond our comprehension...

This is where I landed too.

GPT generated "ideas" strike as wanting to use a swipe file. Only instead of it being full of persuasive, high-performing marketing materials.. it's just fast and prolific

This is the sort of stock line, and we're inclined to believe it because we're all in tech.

But go back on HN a decade and be really honest.

Are we any better than average at forecasting?

I'm starting to think that being on the bleeding edge and seeing so many possible alternate futures actually makes us worse

Something curious that I've noticed is that the people who I see that are MOST excited are in tech.

When I show ChatGPT to a lay person they don't really care.

When I show it to a professional copywriter they say that if they submitted this content to a client they would lose the client.

I'm reminded of when my son was learning to talk and everything he said seemed brilliant and coherent to me.

To any stranger it sounded like gibberish.

I think GPT is like my son, and all tech people are like excited parents.

Maybe the kid will learn to speak like an adult, but it can't yet

>> Careful prompt work can evade those poles and tics, but most people won’t have the skill or drive to bother with that.

I absolutely agree with this.

Furthermore, I've come to believe that "careful prompt work" doesn't really save much time relative to just writing/coding the output I want.

Especially after QA/edits