berserk1010

That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

> they become the dominant world super power.

There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.

- Chinese stock market has dropped 11% this year, with 3 year cumulative loss of 6 trillion in 3 years https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-...

- Chinese economy is suffering from deflation

- China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively

Foreign investors have snatched back nearly 90% (!!!) of the money they put into Chinese stocks this year (2023) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-econom...

For reference, when Germany and Japan was expanding, they had great, young demographics, and thus very good tax base. Japan had very low debt in 1920 when they started the wars https://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/s15_0004.html. Germany had suspended the gold standard and financed the war by borrowing, something China cannot do today.

Another way to think about this is, instead of all the possible money China made that it could have spent on war, instead it decided to build half-finished tofu dreg buildings, then the CCP elites took those dirty money out of China and into western economies :). Even the elites knew China was no match for the combined wealth/forces of western countries.

https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/taiwan/annual-househol...

13k in 2017, 17k in 2022, 30% increase. and 22k in 2023, 30% increase.

the stagnation from 2011 to 2017 is due to the pro-China president from 2008 to 2016, which fueled market and investment losses going to China. That reversed in 2016 with the Pro-Taiwan president.

companies have announced over $166 billion in manufacturing in semiconductors and electronics, and at least 50 community colleges in 19 states have announced new or expanded programming to help American workers access good-paying jobs in the semiconductor industry. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases...

Apple commits $430 billion in US investments over five years https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2021/04/apple-commits-430-bil...

Microsoft will buy enough U.S.-made solar panels to power 1.8 million homes https://www.greenbiz.com/article/microsoft-will-buy-enough-u...

Tesla plans to spend $3.6 billion more on battery and truck manufacturing in Nevada https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/tesla-plans-to-spend-3point6...

1.) The heavy market losses in 2024 come hot on the heels of a bruising run last year, when the CSI 300 index, comprising 300 major stocks listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, fell more than 11%. By contrast, the United States’ benchmark S&P 500 index climbed 24% in 2023, while Europe’s grew almost 13%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared 28% last year and is still going strong, notching gains of nearly 10% so far this month. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/22/business/china-stock-market-f...

2.) China suffers from deflation, while the rest of the world combats inflation. Not only does deflation signal a stagnating economy, it can lead to high unemployment, unaffordable debt repayment, and dismal outcomes for businesses. In the worst cases, deflation can lead an economy into a recession, or even a depression. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/deflation-worries-deepen-in-...

3.) Crushing debt. Going back further, China accounts for over half of the entire world’s total debt-to-GDP increases since 2008. https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/backgrounder-china-econo... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-01-06/bloomb...

4.) China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/economy/china-economy-july-sl.... For reference, G7 countries is at 10%, US is at 8% https://data.oecd.org/unemp/youth-unemployment-rate.htm

New investments in China by Taiwanese companies declined 10.4 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of the year (2023) to US$758 million...That follows an almost 14 percent decrease in such investment last year.https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2023/04/21/2...

Exodus of Taiwanese businesses from China: push and pull factors amidst trade and tech tensions https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=3573

U.S. manufacturing construction spending reached a 20-year high, hitting a $194 billion annual rate in April 2023, nearly double the $107 billion annual rate from a year ago. https://thinkkc.com/news/blog/kc-smartport-blog/2023/08/01/i...

In 2021, Intel announced more than $43.5 billion in new manufacturing investments across Arizona, New Mexico and Ohio to bolster U.S. chipmaking and R&D leadership. https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1638/...

Walmart previously announced a $350 billion investment to make U.S. manufacturing more “affordable and feasible,”

https://www.sme.org/technologies/articles/2023/october/resho...