benedictevans

Who decides whether Linux is doing well enough? Who is responsible for fixing bugs or incorporating new requirements? Who is checking that it follows this month's new regulatory requirements? As the tasks scales to become more important, any organization needs to have systematic answers to those kinds of questions. And yes, you can use software for that (we always did!), but you still need a human somewhere who is exercising judgment.

The entire essay explains why I think this is wrong. At a minimum, it is not 'undeniable' - I just denied it ;). Which part of the chain of reasoning I laid out do you disagree with, and why?

Ah, that’s different. Your question confused me because you said they were duplicate slides and they are not, and your word ‘predication’ looked like a typo by you.

There are no duplicate slides.

You are surprised to discover how an entire industry you know nothing about does things. You conclude that everyone in that industry must be an idiot doing bad work.

This says far more about you than it does about me.

All of these points are simply wrong.

I charted the revenue reported by Anthropic and OpenAI as gross and net because those are the numbers they disclose. Anthropic does not report net revenue nor give us any way to calculate that, and the same in reverse for OpenAI. It would be great if we had GAAP revenue, but we don't. This is what we have, and it still tells an important story. What are we supposed to do - just not show the data?

All of the charts indicate whether they are adjusted for inflation. There is no rigid convention on this, but the general practice is that you don't adjust up to maybe 20 years and generally do convert for more than that, unless inflation itself is under discussion, which it is not here. Meanwhile, the text on each slide explains the purpose of the comparison. None of them are random.

Every chart is correctly sourced exactly as you will see it in any other piece of financial or industry research. It is not industry practice to cite specific documents or provide footnotes.

You've clearly just never seen any industry or financial analysis before, and are unfamiliar with basic and universal conventions that run back decades. That's fine. Being rude about it is not.

No, I've never said that, and never thought that. The actual text in that tweet is: " The blockchain can't lie, but you can lie to the blockchain"

You don't know how to use Search, and this is beyond anything worth engaging with.

I didn’t make any comparison at all with the fibre bubble, for precisely that reason. The comparison is with mobile data, which was and is always behind capacity.

I think one of the things that the usage data shows us is that chatbots absolutely do not have infinite use cases - most users only use them a day or two a week or less.

No, I didn’t. I made my account private and stopped using twitter. And the actual tweet says the opposite - that NFTs would need to develop some kind of cultural grounding for them to become a investment, which they didn’t have at the time and never got, and without that this would just be a speculative bubble, which is exactly what happened.

I made it very clear that I thought NFTs were a speculative bubble. I never suggested anyone should buy any crypto-related instrument. The idea that I was ‘shilling for crypto’ is something you would only say if you’re an idiot, as the OP and a few others on this thread clearly are.

Yes, I wrote about Rock’s Law too, but we don’t know that this is how these models will develop

I've made the semi comparison myself, but the amount of capital required to build a SOTA model today is clearly nowhere near enough to lead to a monopoly.

I'm aware that telecoms networks are standardised (I was once a telecoms analyst), but that isn't a precondition for a commodity.

No, you have a different opinion about terminology, which ironically is one of the things I noted as pointless in the thread I posted.

No, I was using crypto and blockchain as interchangeable terms. I'm aware some people don't, but that's always how any person the space I've spoken to uses them

There’s a bunch of fuzzy metrics here, which is one reason I turned it back into a monthly number. The other issue (as you’ll see on the chart) is that Anthropic and openAI are recognising revenue in completely different ways.

This is hilarious. What am I going to do? Hire a hitman? if you’re going be a dick on the Internet, you should be a dick using your real name. I don’t think that’s a threat.