balloot
Joined 15 years ago
Joined 15 years ago
1) Write a script to answer requests without ever intending to pick up.
2) Get out of the car, don't transfer the other half.
3) Sign up as a driver, and wait until you find an attractive/rich fare. Lock doors and do what you will.
Deregulation is not the answer for everything. Uber/Lyft works precisely because they are very well regulated to stop the cases I outline above, and more.
Who is "you"? Someone, somewhere would be creating a system that verifies unique identities, aggregates ratings, etc. Even if the logic is peer-to-peer, the system requires an extremely robust engineering infrastructure to keep it going, and the people that build that thing take on all the issues Uber is dealing with, but without real control over the system.
Or to put it differently, it's not a coincidence that all big peer-to-peer systems are anchored in weird spots around the world. In any major country the government will hunt down the keepers of the system and hold them accountable for the content.
So, to answer your question directly, you're missing a whole lot.
Is it possible that the best possible UX solution for winding a mechanical watch and controlling a digital OS is exactly the same? Perhaps. But that seems improbable to me. It's hard to know until the thing is out in the wild, but I would expect a lot of people fiddling awkwardly with the top half of that tiny little dial as the bottom of the dial digs into their wrist. Doesn't seem terribly fun.
Or to look at it differently, both of Apple's other consumer hits (iPod, iPhone) introduced a navigation interface that was completely novel and way better than anything else on the market (iPhone => finger navigated multi-touch screen, iPod => rotary dial). A crown on a watch is definitely not novel, and I'm thoroughly skeptical it will be way better than its competition.
That being said, it's unlikely that this thing bombs. But as a test of innovation post-Steve, I'm just not seeing it. And over time, the luster of Apple will fade if there's no innovation.
In the end, you need a learning technology that can properly adapt to any possible situation and give a decent response. Maybe it can be done, but we certainly aren't there yet and I'm skeptical as to the the tractability of the last bit of the problem.
The problem is that the driving model is probabilistic. When you solve a problem probabilistically, getting from 90% covered to 99% to 99.9% covered to 99.99% covered involves exponential leaps in difficulty. So even if the car covers 99.9% of driving conditions (and it currently doesn't), there's still a tremendous amount of work to be done to get it to 99.9999% correct, or whatever the threshold is for it to be deemed "safe" for fully autonomous use.
I personally am bearish on the technology, as getting the inconvenient final situational cases correct will be extremely challenging. I would love to be proven wrong, but at Stanford I came to the opinion that the probabilistic approach would get us to really cool demos, but never a fully autonomous vehicle. That being said, the people working on this are a whole lot smarter than I, and I would love to be proven wrong.
I hire people, and I talk to my wife all the time about work matters. And if, knowing everything she knows about my team, she told me that I should be looking at cutting someone loose, I would take that advice very seriously. Every good executive has trusted advisors, and for people in serious relationships the partner is very commonly one of those advisors.
The only problem here is the wife's alleged direct meddling with work matters, not that she had a strong influence on her husband's work decisions. For founders, life is totally enmeshed with work and it would actually be weird if his wife DIDN'T have strong opinions on the company he built while she supported him at home.