anorwell
Joined 16 years ago
Joined 16 years ago
I do think it's a clear weakness. Capabilities are extremely different than they were twelve months ago.
> What should they do, publish sub-standard results more quickly?
Ideally, publish quality results more quickly.
I'm quite open to competing viewpoints here, but it's my impression that academic publishing cycle isn't really contributing to the AI discussion in a substantive way. The landscape is just moving too quickly.
> We evaluated 11 user-facing production LLMs: four proprietary models from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google; and seven open-weight models from Meta, Qwen, DeepSeek, and Mistral.
(and graphs include model _sizes_, but not versions, for open weight models only.)
I can't apprehend how including what model you are testing is not commonly understood to be a basic requirement.
From my perspective, it's not the worst analogy. In both cases, some people were forecasting an exponential trend into the future and sounding an alarm, while most people seemed to be discounting the exponential effect. Covid's doubling time was ~3 days, whereas the AI capabilities doubling time seems to be about 7 months.
I think disagreement in threads like this often can trace back to a miscommunication about the state today / historically versus. Skeptics are usually saying: capabilities are not good _today_ (or worse: capabilities were not good six months ago when I last tested it. See: this OP which is pre-Opus 4.5). Capabilities forecasters are saying: given the trend, what will things be like in 2026-2027?
edit: A quirk with the use of NFSv3 here is that there's no specific close op. So, if I understand right, ZeroFS' "close-to-open consistency" doesn't imply durability on close (and can't unless every NFS op is durable before returning), only on fsync. Whereas EFS and (I think?) azure files do have this property.
What is the durability model? The docs don't talk about intermediate storage. Slatedb does confirm writes to S3 by default, but I assume that's not happening?
1. Custom scaffolding (system prompt and tools) using Qwen3-32B achieved 13.75% on Terminal-Bench. No training was involved.
2. The author has built an RL system, but it has not been used for anything due to cost limitations.
So there's actually no result related to training here. It well known that the scaffolding used can have a large impact on benchmark outcomes (the Terminal bench leaderboard also demonstrates this [1]).
Separately, we're looking at using fray for concurrency property testing, as a way to reliably catch concurrency issues in a distributed system by simulating it within a single JVM.
Argumentum ad populum, I have the impression that most computer scientists, at least, do not find Searle's argument at all convincing. Too many people for whom GEB was a formative book.