ajra
Joined 10 years ago
Joined 10 years ago
Unfortunately I agree with you regarding the lack of incentives Apple has. IIRC, the money for cash back rewards comes out of the interchange fee. How do you get consumers to adopt a card that's opaquely better for businesses and immediately worse for themselves?
While interesting, it doesn't come close to solving what I feel is the largest problem with cards in the US today -- interchange fees.
FiveThirtyEight actually posted their WC predictions earlier today [1]. Finding where the two models diverge is a fun exercise -- they have Morocco as a 40% favorite tomorrow while your model has Iran as a 46% favorite.
It would be interesting to test the model by applying the Kelly Criterion [2] when you have an odds advantage to a fake initial $1000 bankroll and seeing where you end up at the end of the tournament.
If Iran does end up being a 46% favorite tomorrow then that Kelly test will start to look really good, really quickly - the market is only giving Iran a ~25% chance right now!
[1] https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predicti...
[2] http://www.elem.com/~btilly/kelly-criterion/ for the background, http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/ for a useful calculator