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You will have a really hard time convincing Americans to keep paying high taxes while funding is pulled from their children’s schools and redistributed to inner cities and ruralia. My observations suggest the problem for the latter isn’t financial.

As I see it, it's actually the only safe bet.

Case 1: you keep training engineers.

Case 1.1: AGI soon, you don't need juniors or seniors besides a very few. You cost yourself a ton of money that competitors can reinvest into R&D, use to undercut your prices, or return to keep their investors happy.

Case 1.2: No AGI. Wages rise, a lot. You must remain in line with that to avoid losing those engineers you trained.

Case 2: You quit training juniors and let AI do the work.

Case 2.1: AGI soon, you have saved yourself a bundle of cash and remain mostly in in line with the market.

Case 2.2: no AGI, you are in the same bidding war for talent as everyone else, the same place you'd have been were you to have spent all that cash to train engineers. You now have a juicier balance sheet with which to enter this bidding war.

The only way out of this, you can probably see, is some sort of external co-ordination, as is the case with most of these situations. The high-EV move is to quit training juniors, by a mile, independently of whether AI can replace senior devs in a decade.

Most employment is at will, but salaried employees usually have specified severance in case of termination for convenience. Misrepresenting qualifications does in fact create a case for damages unless the employee is literally perfect. But civil aside, and ethics aside, it is fraud and could conceivably be prosecuted accordingly.

The question is usually understood to mean "on an ongoing basis" and it's essentially lying. The system may not be correct or kind, but I'd have a lot of trouble trusting someone whose response to "the system isn't fair" is "I'll lie to get around it and achieve the outcome I believe is right" enough to hire him.

This is a bit of a game theory problem. "Training senior engineers" is an expensive and thankless task: you bear essentially all the cost, and most of the total benefit accrues to others as a positive externality. Griping at companies that they should undertake to provide this positive externality isn't really a constructive solution.

I think some people are betting on the fact that AI can replace junior devs in 2-5 years and seniors in 10-20, when the old ones are largely gone. But that's sort of beside the point as far as most corporate decision-making.

I believe cursor now supports parallel tasks, no? I haven't done much with it personally but I have buddies who have.

If you want one idiot's perspective, please hyper-focus on model quality. The barrier right now is not tooling, it's the fact that models are not good enough for a large amount of work. More importantly, they're still closer to interns than junior devs: you must give them a ton of guidance, constant feedback, and a very stern eye for them to do even pretty simple tasks.

I'd like to see something with an o1-preview/pro level of quality that isn't insanely expensive, particularly since a lot of programming isn't about syntax (which most SotA modls have down pat) but about understanding the underlying concepts, an area in which they remain weak.

Atp I really don't care if the tooling sucks. Just give me really, really good mdoels that don't cost a kidney.

I am a major hater of many (most?) crypto applications, which should tell you something since the idea of a decentralized currency outside state control is one that deeply appeals to my principles.

But this is one of the better applications I've seen. Running centralized infra for this specific case is extremely difficult and, generally speaking, it makes sense to give people the option to express to willingness to pay for what's essentially a priority request.

This isn't pay-for-access, it's "I'll offer some reward for you to get the paper now, after which it is still accessible to everyone."

My big quibble is with the implementation: there really doesn't need to be a sci-hub memecoin. Monero is purpose-built for this sort of thing. Use Monero (or zcash, I suppose.) Easy litmus test: if a DNM opened up that only supported transactions in its own "memecoin", how many people would take it seriously? Zero.

We "invest" more than almost anyone. 38% higher than the OECD average. I don't find discussions about throwing more money at the problem to be constructive so much as a way to ignore other issues at play.

I don't really see how this affects e.g. what I do for my children. I will absolutely be turning them into the closest to superhuman the current state of treatments lets me, traveling internationally if I need to. If someone else decides to segregate access to treatment, that is a separate, wrong act that will not hold me back from giving my children every advantage possible.

(Yes, I understand this is a positional arms race, but 1. that doesn't change the individually-optimal outcome, and 2. that doesn't change that society net benefits from it.)

This seems like more of an issue with accessibility of the treatment than the treatment itself

If we could make most children smart, productive, ambitious, courteous, civil, conscientious, honorable, strong... the value to society is probably high enough to justify covering it for almost anyone.

Can you explain why this is a bad thing, or is it just “”the rich” bad”?

Interesting. I've never tested o1-pro because it's insanely expensive but preview seemed to do okay.

I wouldn't be shocked if huge, expensive-to-run models performed better and if all the "optimized" versions were actually labs trying to ram cheaper bullshit down everyone's throat. Basically chinesium for LLMs; you can afford them but it's not worth it. I remember someone saying o1 was, what, 200B dense? I might be misremembering.

I've found sonnet-3.7 to be incredibly inconsistent. It can do very well but has a strong tendency to get off-track and run off and do weird things.

3.5 is better for this, ime. I hooked claude desktop up to an MCP server to fake claude-code less the extortionate pricing and it works decently. I've been trying to apply it for rust work; it's not great yet (still doesn't really seem to "understand" rust's concepts) but can do some stuff if you make it `cargo check` after each change and stop it if it doesn't.

I expect something like o3-high is the best out there (aider leaderboards support this) either alone or in combination with 4.1, but tbh that's out of my price range. And frankly, I can't mentally get past paying a very high price for an LLM response that may or may not be useful; it leaves me incredibly resentful as a customer that your model can fail the task, requiring multiple "re-rolls", and you're passing that marginal cost to me.

I'm not really defending it, I'm explaining the mentality. iMessage is probably closer to "something I have" but yeah, often not true for many American users.

I'd probably keep a TOTP app if I actually brought my cell with my everywhere but I really don't feel like it; if I'm heading to a cafe to work for a bit I might need to access something and can't be bothered to bring two devices.

Plus, people increasingly access stuff from cell phones, so it's not a guarantee of "something you have" anymore. And no shot we're convincing everyone to start carrying some kind of hardware token.

You have to remember that cybersecurity is driven by what is secure so much as what is compliant, and increasingly so.

Phone numbers are used like this because in the Year of our Lord 2025, they’re the best way to semi-solve the Sybil problem even somewhat without having to literally do some kind of KYC