Recent submissions

Comment · 9 years ago
> your landlord can tell you tomorrow than the next time your contract is up to renewal (usually yearly), the price will be 2x the current one and if you don't like that you have to leave.

It all depends on your contract. Some contracts may put limits on rent increases in. Yes, in Germany there effectively is rent control that prevents a doubling of the rent within a year, but generally rents don't double within a year.

If those rent controls were good enough to satisfy the affected people, why are there protests and demands for additional laws for even more rent control in places like Berlin? Why is living in Munich so hard to afford? At what point does rent control start to "work"?

Comment · 9 years ago
Real estate prices all over the world have gone up as a consequence of zero-interest monetary policy. Berlin is still on the cheap end, so it's still attractive to buy there even now.

Rents don't go up proportionally, simply because the demand isn't there. During the US housing bubble, rents didn't go up either, while property prices went through the roof.

> Do you know nobody living cheaply with an old contract that they would never get today, and that their landlord can't increase to market rate? Cause I know loads such people and this would not happen in a place without rent controls.

That's because most contracts specify that increasing the rent follows the standard procedure: Over three years, rent can rise by up to 20% (15% in Berlin), if the comparable rents in the area have risen as well (which is influenced by market rate). Ultimately, this limits the pace at which rents rise, but not the extent. In Berlin, only very few areas could sustain such growth, whereas in places like Munich where people earn way more, rents have risen much higher.

This is also not the rent control specific to Berlin (which is what you originally referred to), these are federal regulations.

Comment · 9 years ago
Like I said, there's a demand for affordable housing and in Berlin that means very affordable. Lots of students, lots of artistans, and also lots of unemployed people.

> Either way 15% in 3 years is still rent control.

...which affects very few people.

There are some places that suddenly became "hip", where rent increases drove out lots of low-income people, which caused political backlash. These people really just had to move to less popular places.

Comment · 9 years ago
> This is a thinking that comes from the economic class you are in.

I'm not in an economics class, I'm following local developments.

> If they had zero opportunity in x country, they wouldnt go to x country.

That's a total fallacy. The majority people arriving here initially knew next to nothing about Germany. They were promised by their traffickers all kinds of nonsense, like that they would get a free house and a car. It took a while for the message to spread that it ain't all cotton candy over here. Some still had false beliefs, because people like to believe comfortable lies. Either way, if they come here they get refugee benefits, which is better here than in most other EU countries. It's not an opportunity in my sense, it's a handout.

> Any quota or restriction is meant to be protectionist. Trump didnt put the quotas.

I'm not talking about quotas. I'm talking about choosing who you let in. I'm not arguing for the exact same system that the US has, so stop pointing out its flaws. If we set the requirement that everyone would need to have at least basic literacy and English skills, a huge amount of the people coming in right now wouldn't be allowed. That would still be way more people than we actually need.

> It's important to call it oppression because it what it is: it's negative, it's the application of force to harm someone. If any person is in favor of such measures, I will call them on that, that they are advocating for harming other people, maybe to their own benefit.

Again, who cares? You're not convincing anybody that needs convincing.

You keep arguing in terms of idealizations (or outliers, like San Francisco). Your argument may make sense there, it won't win you anything in the real world. In the real world, you have to deal with real people. Even if the economic argument makes sense, it's a long-term development. Do you believe people want cheaper products later or keep their job now? If they lose their jobs now, they can't just retrain in a heartbeat to become something else, especially not here in Germany. They'll be unemployed, which is culturally a source of shame.

As for the backlash: We've had hundreds of arson attacks against refugee housing and we've had a right-wing populist party come out of nowhere and gain 10% in the elections. Again, well over 95% of refugees have no jobs and little job prospects, even after being here for over a year. How many years will it take, according to your calculations?

The German population is also assuming that these refugees will leave eventually, not stay. Of course, the same was assumed about the Turkish workers coming in in the sixties (they were referred to as "guest workers"). Most of them stayed, now Germany is 5% Turkish-Germans, which are perceived as neither "truly German" not "truly Turkish" by their respective peoples. Their level of success in this society is well below average, which tells you that the level of acceptance isn't as high as people would openly admit to.

If it wasn't for all the WW2 guilt, people would be very open about not wanting Germany to become a ethnic melting pot, like the US. Compare this with countries like Poland or Hungary, where the idea of defending ethnic homogeneity is part and parcel of mainstream politics. As WW2 becomes more of a distant past, the same ideas may take hold here as well.

As for the homeless, I'll just mention that 16 homeless people were murdered in Germany in 2016 alone, which is (per capita) more than in the US (tendency: rising). One of them has been set on fire, just for "fun". He burned to death.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/kriminalitaet/gewalt...

Comment · 9 years ago
You can increase the rent up to 15% (Berlin) within three years, well above the rate of inflation. This forces some people to move out, as well.

Rents in Berlin are a joke compared to London. You can actually get cheap and plentyful housing just outside the city, but then you'll need a car as well.

Comment · 9 years ago
Comment · 9 years ago
What are you contradicting? You are supporting my point. You are sitting in NYC because you're not getting enough money in SF. High rents didn't make wages rise enough to make SF attractive even for you, a hot shot software developer. Now think about all the ordinary people that hail from SF...
Comment · 9 years ago
> I'm explaining that the tax-cost can be a very cost-effective tax investment for the state, so it can be sensible policy, regardless of ideology.

Not as cost-effective as simply picking the cherries from other countries. Plus, the risk is lower. That's my point. If you appeal to economics (or utility, whatever), follow through.

> Then don't..who is asking for that?

If we don't educate them or don't give them the means to do so, they have zero opportunity here, as opposed to slightly above zero.

> U.S. is a good example of shooting itself in the foot. Unles some special circumstances are allowed, no foreign software engineer can get hired in the US until Oct. 2018...

Which is exactly not my point. That is Trump's protectionism at work, not the idea that you pick the cherries from other countries (instead of letting them just flow in).

> "We should use force to not allow other people to move so I can have higher wages" -> how is this not oppression to you?

We're talking about people at the very bottom of pay, how much lower are their wages supposed to drop? I suppose that you believe in the magic of an idealized market, but in the real world there's real people there defending their interests. The same kind of people that will gladly elect populists, by the way. If you want to call that oppression, fine. What difference does it make?

> That you find a beggar unsightly is a problem to you, not the beggars problem,and you are welcome to try to fix it by donating.

The beggars problem is going to become the mob of people that will ask for them to be locked up and deported, in case they become too much of a nuisance.

Again, you're arguing too much like an idealist, which isn't really useful.

Comment · 9 years ago
Wages don't naturally rise just because rent is higher, if anything the converse is true.

You'd end up paying 25$ for a coffee just so that the barista can afford their overpriced housing.

If you're just raising the cost of living, but not the standard, you're not gaining anything for anyone.

Comment · 9 years ago
You're special pleading for those fleeing from war-torn countries. Your original argument however is that everyone should be able to move freely. There were migrants coming in from Africa well before the Syria/Iraq crisis, though most of those never ended up in Germany, but rather in Greece or Italy.

> The case for germany to still provide financial support is that is a huge long term benefit that is tax beneficial, especially for a country with demographic issues. My understanding is that there are reports that justify the tax investment.

If you want to make an utilitarian argument, then so can I: We could just let people apply through a visa process, and decide who to take in. Why should we spend the extra effort to educate all these people when we could just take those already educated in other countries? You know, just like the US does it. Also, there are lots of lower-income EU countries whose citizens have the right to be here. They're performing a lot of the work that they could lose to even cheaper immigrants from even poorer countries, if the laws allowed it. The pressure for unskilled labor is higher than ever.

> With free passage, you would not even know how many peope pass, and it would have a marginal cost to the state (and a much higher benefit!)

People aren't gonna pass forever, they're gonna settle. Right now, they're settling here. If we didn't pay them, they'd be forced to beg on the streets once they run out of travel money.

Comment · 9 years ago
I'm sorry to break your bubble, but it's just not true. Let's take this apart:

http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/may/...

Quote: "In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant."

Source: https://www.thelocal.de/20151113/police-refugees-commit-less...

Headline: "Police: refugees commit less crime than Germans"

Quote: "Interior Minsiter Thomas de Maizière responded to the news by saying: "The current trend shows that refugees are just as unlikely to commit crimes as comparable groups among the current population. The majority of them don't commit crimes, they are seeking protection and and peace in Germany."

Source: https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article148812603/Str...

Actual Quote: "Ganz allgemein sprach Innenminister de Maizière von derzeit verfügbaren „Tendenzaussagen, dass Flüchtlinge im Durchschnitt genauso wenig oder oft straffällig werden wie Vergleichsgruppen der hiesigen Bevölkerung“."

Translation: "We have have information that suggests that refugees commit crime about as often, or as rarely, as comparable groups in the local population".

First of all, the interior minister obviously has a big incentive to downplay whatever problems are caused by the decisions of his administration. Secondly, he's talking about the refugees, not migrants in general. Also, what are "comparable groups"? It's not defined. If it's "comparable", then it's not going to be "typical" nor "average". The information he references is kept "confidential", by the way. In any case, absolutely nowhere does it say that refugees or migrants are less likely to commit crime, even though that's what is being reported by both English sources.

The reality is that crime rate among migrants is higher, for whatever reason. Migrants were responsible for 10-20% (differing by state) of violent crime in 2016, well above their share of the population: http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/kriminalitaet-in-deutschl...

This article does mention however that Syrians/Iraqis are less likely to commit those crimes than migrants from other countries.

Comment · 9 years ago
Meanwhile, if healthcare is profit-driven, suddenly it makes sense to recommend pointless treatments for revenue reasons.

Obamacare is basically the worst of both worlds.

Comment · 9 years ago
Hello from Germany.

We effectively have "free" movement of people from Africa to Europe. Once they're ashore, we can't readily send them back. We also used to have movement from Iraq and Syria through Turkey, but that was curbed.

We took in about a million refugees and we did not manage to integrate well over 90%+ into any form of employment. We don't have jobs for these people. It has cost us about 20 billion in 2016, about 3% of taxes earned total, to support these people. We've managed to "oppress" the flow of refugees with unpopular measures. If we didn't, how many more people are we supposed to take in?

Comment · 9 years ago
In other words, the typical German was more likely to engage in crime than the average migrant.

Sorry, but that's complete nonsense. The crime rate among immigrants (and their descendants) is much higher than among "ethnic" Germans. That means the typical German is less likely to engage in crime.

In absolute numbers of course, there are much more Germans than immigrants, so Germans commit more crimes total, as you would expect.

This topic is sensitive, so people just fling around with percentages and relative numbers until it appears to fit whatever narrative they would like to be true. It's not really helping convince anybody, everybody just keeps believing what they already believe.

Of course, the idea that Germany is now "riddled with crime" is just another Trumpism. Considering that we have a million refugees, the increase in crime is rather low and all the alarmism isn't justified.

Comment · 9 years ago
Counting in crimes like drug sales is misleading. Selling drugs is really just a business opportunity, albeit illegal. Native Germans tend to have much better opportunities and more to lose. To some degree the same is true for robbery/burglary as well. It's economic pressure and incentives that make these crimes attractive, these people aren't so much immigrants but rather crime tourists (some of them from EU countries, mind you).

If you look at crimes without a profit motive, things tend to even out or turn around. You'll rarely see an immigrant responsible for arson or property damage, for example. In absolute terms, most crimes (that are persecuted) are of course profit-driven and the most crimes occur in poor areas.

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