ViewTrick1002
Joined 3 years ago
Joined 3 years ago
https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/blackout/28-april-2025-ib...
From the summary on the page:
> The investigation concludes that the blackout resulted from a combination of many interacting factors, including oscillations, gaps in voltage and reactive power control, differences in voltage regulation practices, rapid output reductions and generator disconnections in Spain, and uneven stabilisation capabilities. These factors led to fast increases of voltage and cascading generation disconnections in Spain, resulting in the blackout in continental Spain and Portugal.
It even models scenarios where they double and triple the available inertia to see if it would have had any effect:
> The above analyses indicate that, even under the assumption of perfect execution of defence plan actions, neither these measures nor additional inertia would have been sufficient to prevent system collapse.
Here's the US regulation from 2016:
> As a result, all newly interconnecting non-synchronous generators will be required to provide reactive power
https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-06/RM16-1-000....
The Iberian blackout was caused by a lack of reactive power leading to voltages going out of their designed ranges.
The Iberian grid had adequate inertia at the time.
Reasonable grids have forced inverter based generation to manage reactive power for over a decade. But Spain due to lackluster processes relied on thermal plants to provide it. And they didn’t provide the expected amount.
There were some more confounders around oscillations and what not but the central cause came down to voltage control. Which is near trivial to solve in 2026. If you just force everyone to do it.
We've now past that and batteries are actively killing the business case for fossil gas peakers while renewables are doing the same for legacy thermal producers.
The new merit order: The viability of energy-only electricity markets with only intermittent renewable energy sources and grid-scale storage
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014098832...
But it is a problem for legacy thermal electricity producers being undercut by renewables and storage.
We aim for those to be real-time markets as well. But for some services that doesn’t fit so we instead buy the services on longer contracts.
The goal is of course to have the ancillary services to be as small and few as possible since it is a supplement creating market based pricing for the things the marginal net energy market itself doesn’t provide adequately today.
Denmark, 2026: system-level LCOE including storage, flexibility and system integration; renewables substantially cheaper than nuclear.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422...
Finland, 2025: nuclear scenarios 71–84% higher system cost; unrestricted least-cost optimization builds zero new nuclear.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S036054422...
Australia, CSIRO + AEMO GenCost 2025–26: whole-system modelling including transmission, storage and firming; renewables + storage remain the lowest-cost net-zero pathway.
https://www.csiro.au/en/research/technology-space/energy/Ele...
What are these grid operators and researchers missing that you know?
We still need to decarbonize agriculture, chemicals, aviation, shipping, heavy industry, construction and so on. Most of which use either chemical energy carriers, or fossil feedstock.
Siphoning off a tiny bit off that for grid firming duty is trivial. Or do sustainable biofuels from food waste and so on.
Which is also what the system studies lands on. Finding that adding new nuclear makes it far more expensive.
Today renewables and storage are the cheapest energy source in human history, and is reshaping the global energy system.
I just can't comprehend why some people get so upset by Germany.
Compared to poking at a mungy ball of accidental state where every change introduces complexity for the future which every downstream agent needs to correctly find.
Meanwhile renewables and storage are reshaping our global energy system due to being the cheapest globally scalable energy source in human history.
We also need to keep in mind nuclear supply chains. After 21 sanction packages the EU still haven't sanctioned Russia's nuclear industry.
We're simply too deeply entangled across the entire supply chain: nuclear fuel, enrichment, reprocessing, technological partnerships, reactor maintenance, new construction and more.