Tanjreeve

You are absolutely entitled to call it a meme but that is also their own internal reporting/panicked emails. Subscriptions are offered at a large subsidy with the benefit of more training data and adoption.

> I predict that eventually the training expenditure is going to slow down. At that point, the large commercial providers are likely hoping they can keep inference demand up, and recoup their investment.

The big labs can't do this that's their edge over open models. The stickiness is critical for them to keep up. They might try again but it's going to finish badly.

"Latest frontier models" seems a bit like acting like smarter reasoning can fill in context that doesn't exist in various systems without guessing. It's convenient because it's always the users fault for not working in the platonic ideal observability setup that can feed everything on a plate. And if you're in that situation how much is the agent adding over incremental improvements?

It can't be both "so easy and hands free anyone can use it" and also "well they must be using the wrong model/holding it wrong if it's not working for them". If there weren't tradeoffs of the different models then it wouldn't be exposed to the user.

Was the main focus of your job genuinely using the aws CLI and pulling logs though? I was pretty good at it and jq but the only advantage I ever got from that was more time to deal with the problem on the ticket which has been 50/50 in my experience unless the ground is prepared with context + dev environment etc.

If people paid a profitable price for Opus 5.5 it would not be the best product in the world and would not be slotted into so many things where it's benefiting from ubiquity. That circle needs squaring. There will be an Opus 5.5 that's a 10th of the price in a few months.

Well they just need to use it properly and build a bunch of software systems for them to lever..oh hang on a minute...

The consumer product is losing them money and the possibly profitable enterprise product (API) is a smaller % of revenue and in an increasingly competitive niche. The constant disingenuous baiting and switching between the two whenever convenient is very tiresome.

If they can't raise capital then yes that will have a huge impact on a company that's a massive tower of financial engineering as coreweave have been learning.

As the conversation was about the societal trend. For the vast majority of people the answer is <= 1 month and it drops off precipitously adding months on.

Having something dumb that just cycles through the state of the art for exploits is already absolutely incredible security tooling (if people bother to make it into a process which I'm less optimistic about)

Odd behaviour that's unexplained creates conspiracy theories. That's a self created problem here.

That’s 22 million of capacity foregone for a marketing stunt. Or they had more capacity than demand which seems odd for a product that’s allegedly in constant demand etc.

There just isn’t a sane way to look at this as “investment”

Exorbitant Cloud costs and spending 22 million to solve a 1 million dollar maths problem isn’t investment though.

I think there’s some crossed wires here with the wider data centre build outs. OpenAI have their own flavours of sketchy behaviour but I’m not aware of them solely being on the hook for those amounts short of some weird accounting of Microsoft cloud costs onto them or something.

That’s mostly not the Frontier Labs. They’re definitely creating a lot of the demand but the people taking out those loans are Neoclouds and Big Tech (hence why Facebook + Google et al suddenly all have terrible cash flows after years of having more money than can be spent).

AnthropenAI are the ones driving a lot of that infrastructure spending when they’re such big consumers of compute but they’re not the ones feeling the brunt of the infra spending. Although those costs will bubble up to them indirectly eventually.

It’s like they were all trained on the same internet as the others and they all all have some sort of midpoint opinion that could be a reddit comment or one of the other websites dominated by western desk workers.