TSiege

the irony that this argument was made by an AI account is now being copied to argue against the value of the company responsible for making it

Any sources on training costs in free fall? My understanding was training costs are proportional to model size. Is it just that compute costs are falling?

Are the shortcuts for moving between tabs and spaces good? I can see the appeal of the sidebar and the split view is genuinely cool, but it's features, like glance, feels really cursor heavy. Clicking on a page and then going back to the search results is so fast with a keyboard or track gestures. I want fewer mouse movements not more.

In what sense did deno compete with cloudflare? It is a niche runtime and cloudflare is a cloud platform

Not only can you switch models easily, but their competition can easily duplicate their product. I'm not sure stickiness has been found yet, but my guess is being more of G-Suite for "intelligence" than being a token hawker.

The question isn't whether the market is big enough. It's whether at a race to the bottom on prices is sustainable and worth what investors expected it to be. The original story of OpenAI and Anthropic was that it was a race to super intelligence and whoever gets there first basically captures all the money in the economy. That kind of investment pitch means missing out not just on big returns but perhaps infinite return on investment. It seemed like it'd be true when the market was young and the cost to compete was prohibitive, but now anyone can compete with open weight models that are cheaper and maybe not the best, but are good enough.

You raise $200B to be a high margin low capex business, not an industrial commodity producer with high capex and margins being set by competitors who can duplicate your product and undercut you on price.

There isn’t a moat in the sense of self hosting but you need a reason for people who don’t want that to stay on your platform. Customers save time and effort managing payments easier this way. However it’s a race to the bottom price wise.

Going to be all about branding and platform stickiness for OpenAI to make investors and creditors whole.

The response to Jev should be the nail in the coffin over whether or not the AI business is a commodity market.

Out of no where Jev appeared as the next round of the price wars. Jev showed the value of System One models. A fast yes/no/confidence score not only is cheaper but also often all people want. Open source versions flood hugging face and now the big players are giving up a potentially big driver of output tokens to keep customers and race to the bottom price wise.

If I were OpenAI or Anthropic I’d be racing to make their products as sticky as possible bc ppl will flock to what’s cheapest otherwise.

Deleted. Thanks for the citation

Agreed. Ehlrich as well. He was a butterfly specialist and applied population theories he used in his own research onto humans. His book was a surprise best seller and made him an intellectual celebrity.

His article is heavy cherry picking and shows little curiosity beyond “you’re dumb I’m smart.”

All pros and cons of LLM coding aside, something has really shifted for me with the latest agentic coding. I’ve found my motivation to work slowly slipping away. No matter what role I had I always found something to keep me engaged with the job. Now though there’s no motivation. Every week it feels like my skills, talents, even ideas themselves are less and less relevant. I’m just meat shuffling data and permissions between bots

You’re just describing the exact situation we’re in but substituting a drone for a rifle. If the government is mad they should just partner with a contractor who is less concerned about this, which lo-and-behold they did it’s a company called OpenAI.

Anthropic isn’t a supply chain risk since they easy found someone else

I think part of the big push to "slow down AI development" is to add some sort of regulatory pressure that will give them sort cover to train less models and slow their burn rates

Yes I think they should be more direct. Not sure why they weren't