SocialGradients
Joined 7 months ago
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Comment · 17 days ago
Comment · 2 months ago
Agreed. Assuming the ~6 month gap stays, by end of year people will be able to train and control hacker-genius swarms that even labs with much stronger safety incentives are unable to keep in check
Comment · 7 months ago
Not to mention, Austin could just make it cheaper to build to offset lower sell prices. Gruber et al estimate permits are 50% of an LA home's price. Fix permitting and rent goes down 50% by your assumptions that developers build until margins are 0.
Assume austin is only half as bad as LA, a 25% rent decrease would be incredible
Gruber's paper: https://evansoltas.com/papers/Permitting_SoltasGruber2026.pd...
Comment · 7 months ago
This is an empirical claim. It looks like new monthly permits are down from ~4k a month in 2021-2022 to ~3k a month. They're still up significantly from before 2020. The building boom has slowed but it's still elevated. Not particularly close to zeroing out.
The data is here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AUST448BPPRIVSA.
Some background for the <1% estimate:
- The fine was for 3M vs a 13B egg market
- The only quotation I could find covering how much the cartel raised prices was "placed bids at a price that was two cents greater" from Matt Levine's piece: https://emailshot.io/p/LKaQi73kHN4uv5sVMUbfSXNQdm3ELgy9j. That's ~1% of the Northwest Large White benchmark price of $5.43