Retric

The lesson from Aviation is how to constantly have mistakes without failure.

Sometimes they close down airports, that’s risk management not complete risk avoidance.

That slowly changing landscape killed SO. Every year a higher percentage of answers were wrong because they got outdated, and removing duplicates made it worse.

I don’t think anyone in the org wanted to face the fact that the underlying assumptions in their model was flawed. The older an upvote the less reliable it becomes.

Consistently catching errors is vastly harder when you’re not the one doing the legwork. Send the wrong file, do a bad copy and paste, or skip one verification step, etc is all it takes for most people to majorly mess up.

For most professionals it’s just safer to avoid having output in your workflow. Keep using AI, but stop copying and pasting AI output.

The issue is the opposite of hallucinations where the LLM ignores relevant information.

Sure you can combine this with a regular search but there’s opportunity cost whenever you say LLM + something else rather than just the other thing.

There’s models created by people with heavy right wing affiliation, but it’s harder than you think to bias models consistently because political beliefs are so broad reaching.

Calling out bias however is a standard practice for groups whose beliefs don’t match reality. You see that on political extremes, but also revisionist history, many religious groups, conspiracy theories, etc.

That’s only true over a relatively short period.

Stuff you can do for a week doesn’t automatically extend to maintaining that over the next 50 years.

> the numbers I gave you

You didn’t give any numbers, just stated things very confidently without actually reviewing any of the relevant literature.

> the false assumption that moving from each tier is a low probability event

Doesn’t need to be a low probability events, multiply probabilities and the result becomes less likely every single time. And that’s of course ignoring the underlying reasons why the probability at each stage isn’t low in the first place. A smart kid at 6 is unlikely to turn into a dumb kid at 16 etc.

> massively increases

The data doesn’t support that assertion. Elite collages do favor elite high schools, and elite high schools do favor elite middle schools etc but each link in the chain dilutes the impact of the steps further up the chain. Kids have many opportunities to jump up the chain before college and many to fail to keep up with the elite track. Which is why statistically elite preschools have such a minimal impact.

Of course that’s adjusting for the role of the parents which impacts attendance at elite schools but is obviously not impacted by their kids attendance.

Elite early education minimal little long term benefit, people tend to revert to the mean over time. The education system has plenty of slack for intelligent individuals to excel, so play the long game.

Health and wellbeing pay the best dividends as you can maximize the nurture aspect of intelligence early and build resilience against unexpected hardships.

I’d expect there’s many situations where sending a helicopter would be considered too dangerous for the crew, but the lack of medical care on a drone seems like a big limitation.

Drones are not at equal risk in all missions and neither are wounded soldiers in equal need for evacuation. A long list of Americans have died in helicopter accidents while receiving medical transport but a much longer list had their lives saved by those same basic methods.

Look at the “legal %” field on that chart. That’s utter trash even counting per move vs games without errors. Further they outperform vs bots who stick to main lines more than normal players, actual performance vs humans means both lower ELO and more errors.

Note: * = Anchor player (fixed rating, used for calibration)

LLM’s are terrible at following the rules of Chess when playing a game. Determinism isn’t helpful because valid moves are so dependent upon the total state of the board.

Programming state gets way more complicated, but code is generally written to help people understand it greatly simplifying the process. Feed in “cursed” code leveraging obscure language features in creative ways and LLM’s and most people fail.

HOA’s kill any character an area has. The fees more than offset the economic benefits of joining one. The damming economics largely comes down to local governments skipping road maintenance without giving you a discount on your taxes.

Net effect you lose money living in a worse location.