Octoth0rpe

A question mark? :)

So I see an interesting side effect of all of this in your comment. The groupthink seems to conclude that the root of GH's issues are: - A dramatic increase in its traffic due to vibecoding - Azure just generally not being very reliable

Now, if you're not a paying customer, maybe you just ignore this and chalk it up to "I'm getting what I paid for". And if you're a paying customer, you migrate away. What happens to GH then? Well, you (and other paying customers) are probably only a small part of the first of the identified causes, and not at all a contributor to the second. So it's not like you moving away will make GH more reliable, but it does lessen MS's motivations for fixing things: GH as a business unit works by having a free tier and a premium tier and that's fine as long as the profit from the premium tier exceeds the cost of the free tier.

THat's long winded way of saying: I wonder if you/other paying customers leaving is the real start of a GH death spiral. Less paying customers == less MS investment == less paying customers == less MS investment, etc.

> Obviously can’t use it at work

I do wonder how long it'll be before a us-hosted offering is available via bedrock, copilot, etc.

Man, I wonder how many facebook marketplace sales will be something like "In order to make sure you're a real person, before we can meet up so I can hand over this brand new macbook for $500 I need you to send me $10 electronically. It's really just to verify your commitment". With the right prompting, I'd be entirely unsurprised if Muse will just send over the $10, and of course the seller ghosts the buyer -_-

My version of this theory is that we already have AGI, but Altman/Amodei/Zuck keep asking it for an infinite money glitch and it keeps (correctly!) saying "no money, humanity is fucked given the trajectory, and you in particular will be fucked once the general public decides that you're the scapegoat". A/A/Z decides the AGI is wrong of course, so obviously dumping another billion into training or reinforcement or tagging or whatever is the next step.

The way I read that was that the chips cost thousands of dollars each, not the datacenter itself.

a) we don't actually know what the prices will look like yet, b) what about same weights + huge context? or, same weights that you'd run on 128gb/256gb, but multiple models running for different tasks?

> And tyeah... open weight models cant compete with likes of astra yet

I think this is true, but also misses that a lot of us are just doing basic flask apps with a react front end. We don't need astra; Something sonnet 4.6 level locally is perfectly sufficient 95% of the time, and maybe 99% of the time.

> There needs to be a single wringable neck.

Does there? Could be the whole c-suite/board.

I think this is worth revisiting once we get some solid 3rd party numbers from the new mac studio ultras, which admittedly are a bit over $10k with a 2tb ssd + 256gb ram. I think I'd be seriously considering it if I had a $200/month subscription of some kind.

What's particularly frustrating about the discontinuing of the Mini is that it really didn't sell badly, just below _expectations_. Compared to every other model of phone sold by other manufacturers, I suspect the Mini outsold all but the most popular models.

From that perspective, the discontinuation feels more like an act of embarrassment by management than the result of a rational cost/benefit analysis. Given that reportedly the Air is selling substantially worse than the Minis, and I suspect the Duo will also fail to match its internal sales target because IMO Apple _usually_* overestimates the number of buyers willing to drop $2k+ for personal purchases (lots of corporations are willing to buy laptops for $2k+, but I suspect that almost all AVP/iPhone purchases are direct to consumer), I wonder if Ternus be willing to adopt a strategy that will keep profitable products around even if they don't meet their target. I suspect this is sort of an effect of the predictors being in some kind of high income bubble where _everyone_ they know has enough cash to drop $3500 to try out an AVP.

I had a Mini 12 and upgrade every 3 years, so I didn't bother with a mini 13. I ended up buying a base 15 and hoping that I wouldn't mind it, but my regret has only gotten stronger over time.

* Exception: they have dramatically underestimated the number of people wanting to buy high ram minis/studios for local AI.

Please review the above comments. I have not made a single statement that leads to exluding either of those. My comments did not seek to define art, or the artistic process, only to exclude a specific category of media.