NoboruWataya

Joined 5 years ago

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4,447
Submissions
1,152
Member since
Jun 30
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Recent submissions

Comment · 6 days ago
I usually check in on gemini://antenna.michaelnordmeyer.com/ and think the content is a bit broader than you suggest. Recent posts cover topics like OpenBSD, Disney movies, Arch Linux, UK local radio, socks, books, and so on. Yes, there are a number of posts about Gemini, too, but it's a minority.
Comment · 8 days ago
What models are people actually using to pump out code? That is the relevant comparison, not the absolute best in class models.
Comment · 8 days ago
A dumb TV connected via HDMI to a Raspberry Pi running Kodi is smart enough for me.
Comment · 15 days ago
Knowing that a new competitor has entered the market with a superior product is not inside information. The iPhone was public knowledge (that is how the Nokia engineers, who were not Apple insiders, knew about it). Nokia's existing offering was also public knowledge. Sure, some members of the public might have speculated that maybe Nokia was about to respond with its own killer smartphone, and Nokia insiders knew that wasn't the case. But that's not concrete information. Not to mention that "we can't compete with Apple" is ultimately a matter of opinion/prediction, not concrete information.

This has nothing to do with inside information or insider trading, it is just "if your company is bad, maybe you should go work for a better company".

Also it reeks of AI.

Comment · 17 days ago
This is an oversimplification. It is straightforwardly correct that, for any imperfectly correlated basket of assets, the senior slice will be safer than the junior slice. If you hold the most senior 10% of a basket of mortgages, 90% of those mortgages would need to default for you to start taking losses. That is rare in any context and in fact there is a good bit of evidence that AAA-rated mortgage-backed securities didn't actually do all that badly in the 2008 crisis: https://www.nber.org/papers/w24509

There were a lot of factors that contributed to the 2008 crisis: adverse selection leading to low quality portfolios, mispriced assets, high leverage which magnified losses, lower-quality securities being held by investors who couldn't really afford to bear the losses on them, etc. But the fundamental concept of tranching is not actually that bad, even though every time people read about it they think it's the exact same as 2008. Banks have been tranching debt since long before 2008 and they have been tranching debt ever since. Not just mortgages either, but all kinds of debt.

Comment · 17 days ago
The next sentence in that article is:

> They sell down debt when they are worried about concentration, which is exactly what "approaching internal limits" means in plain English: too much of this bank's balance sheet is now one bet on one sector holding up.

Which is correct, but kind of weird because being confident in a credit and being worried about concentration are not really mutually exclusive things. You can be pretty confident in an investment but not want it to constitute a majority of your portfolio. (Bankers know that even very strong credits are never 100% guaranteed to pay out.)

Let's say I offered you the chance to pay $100 to get $120 back if at least one coin toss in five came up heads. That's a pretty good bet, right? But would you bet your house on it?

Comment · 17 days ago
The short answer is to free up money to make other investments.

The longer answer is that banks generally have policies about how concentrated they can be in individual borrowers, industry sectors, geographies, etc. That is why you rarely see a single bank take all of a very large corporate loan. They syndicate it out.

Comment · 17 days ago
This is the definition of survivorship bias. There are a ton of tech stocks that you would have lost your shirt on had you invested in them just prior to the crash.

Even if you invested in a company that ultimately became a winner, you'd need to be able to hold on to it throughout the correction. You put your savings in tech stocks, the tech sector undergoes a significant correction, the stocks dive, you get laid off because you also work in tech and now you have to liquidate your stocks to meet your obligations. (Or you just retire at the wrong time.)

Comment · 18 days ago
Here's the HN thread about the rebrand that "many people actually loved for its ingenuity" https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=13425380

There is some praise but it's mostly the same complaints that come up whenever Mozilla gets mentioned on HN, it's awful, I can't believe they've done this, millions wasted etc.

Comment · 18 days ago
If you sort by relevance it seems to prioritise the word you asked for? I searched "wedding" and the first few hundred results were all emails about actual weddings. It was only when I sorted by date I saw the "Wed" results.
Comment · 19 days ago
Writing a will isn't really "transactional", there is no negotiation involved. And wills are already a highly commoditised legal product. (So I agree with you that will drafting is ripe for disruption by LLMs, but don't think this indicates a broader disruption of transactional work or the profession generally.)
Comment · 28 days ago
From now on, whenever we want to refer to particular software, as well as the name we're going to have to specify whether we mean the AI thing or the other thing.
Comment · 1 month ago
Interesting that the site is only available in the US. I wonder why that is.
Comment · 1 month ago
Presumably if the protocol becomes popular you will have public instances that anyone* can sign up to, the same way other federated services work now.

(It's approximately as hard for a layman user to sign up to a Mastodon instance as it is to sign up for X. The fact that most layman users don't do that is a separate issue.)

Comment · 1 month ago
I did think postmarketOS was a bit of an awkward name but it was also widely recognised, at least in Linux nerd circles. I guess this will cause a bit of confusion in the short term but hopefully lead to broader recognition in the longer term. Though the obstacles to Nura's growth are probably not primarily branding-related.

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