NhanH

Joined 13 years ago

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Member since
Feb 15
I can be reached at human(at)nhanho(dot)me .
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Recent submissions

Comment · 1 month ago
Leaders should not need to know every single detail (ie how this incident happens, or all the tiny process changes that are happening toward their visions). That is different than knowing nothing in detailed.

The baseline expectation in the original post also applies to the SVP: he knew enough to know that things aren't unreasonable to start with, this expectation might not apply to all companies.

Comment · 1 month ago
Goods have inherent value. We are talking about currency.
Comment · 1 month ago
Comment · 2 months ago
That is the entire Marx's Das Kapital. The main argument being free market will lead to concentration of power and then capitalism collaspe. He expanded on what he thought the not-capitalism could be.

Then Lenin concluded that if you will always have concentration of power and some folks doing centralized planning, it might well be the state.

Comment · 2 months ago
Ah it was not explicit enough.

They will die, for some definitions of death -- I don't think they disappear, but they should be a niche, rather than the dominant doctrine.

Comment · 2 months ago
The whole cloud story lies on two aspects:

- Hyperscaling “we are going to serve billions of people in our applications”, which is becoming increasing unlikely as regional tech companies become more dominant than than the global one (this one is as much about geopolitics as technology)

- Operations is hard, in which case non-frontier models should be increasingly capable. Devops for small-ish deployment is one of the few cases where it is hard to clam you need deep expertise and AI can’t do it. Previously, the claim is that you need people specialized in ops, which is expensive. Now…

My prediction is that not just cloud LLM, but cloud business general will have to change. Not yet in the next 5 years, but probably 8-20 years-ish

Comment · 2 months ago
Yes, because that increases the likelihood of Japan, Korea, Ukraine and even Taiwan getting nuke.
Comment · 2 months ago
Professor Robert Pape (University of Chicago) has 2 substacks where he have been discussing the exactly topic heavily, as well as having webinar/ live discussions with some heavy hitters about the topic. Unfortunately both of the substacks are both subscription-only

https://professorrobertpape.substack.com/

https://escalationtrap.substack.com

I would rather not paraphrasing or rewrite in my interpretation too much, as the topic is difficult enough as-is. But the short version is that the mainstream analysis of "worst case" is nowhere near his level of worst-case scenario and that the US has no control of the situations any more (the US can still control its actions, but Iran is already emboldened enough to take actions on its own strategic plan). The worst-case scenario has Iran with nuke as the baseline, and Iran also growing to be the dominant regional power in Middle East, on-par with Russian in the peak strength in 2010s.

Comment · 9 months ago
This is just the standard precision/ recall tradeoff with recall being prioritised at the extreme (which is usually the wrong way to go for legal field).

A standard situation of 1% positive rate and even if your diagnosis method having 90% accuracy (for both sensitivity and specificity), more than 90% of the positive detection would be false positive.

Comment · 1 year ago
Here is the official official story: https://www.nasa.gov/history/sfa-message-everyone-plays-role...

Though I don't think I will be able to cite an official document stating Al Chop is a Snoopy fan :-), so there's that.

Comment · 1 year ago
The guy who created the award was a fan of Snoopy, and that's about it
Comment · 1 year ago
Patients are assigned the time for their visits. The time itself is randomized
Comment · 1 year ago
You are claiming that the median age in China is 52 or did I read this wrong? That would be beyond fake news level of statement (for my reading of the meaning)

The current median age of China is about 40, which is not great for their context, but a world apart from 52.

Comment · 1 year ago
> It happens to literally every existence of life across the universe because the final emergent property of energy gradients 100% leads to pure logic machines.

This sentence has way too many assumptions doing the heavy lifting.

“Pure logic machines” is not a thing because literally, there are things that are uncomputable (both in the sense of Turing machine’s uncomputability, and in the sense that some functions are out of scope for a finite being to compute, think of Busy Beaver)

To put it the other way, your assumption is that machines (as we commonly uses the term, rather than scifi Terminator”) are more energy efficient than human in understanding the universe. We do not have any evidence nor priori for that assumption.

Comment · 1 year ago
Lifetime is always product or company lifetime

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