MadxX79

I usually find myself lurking around when Americans discuss this topic. I like to imagine I'm an Anthropologist/Time-traveler that travelled back in time to the witch trials and is trying to blend in not to get caught by the villagers.

The Navier-Stokes proof cost ~10mio USD in tokens at consumer prices, and it was something that the two people working on it were allegedly weeks or months away from solving. You can buy ~200 Math PhD Years for 10Mio USD, so it doesn't seem like a shortcut at all (actually it sounds like we would have gotten the same solution for ~1-0.1% of the price if we had just been a little patient.

We weren't willing to pay for 200 math PhD students to try to find singularities in Navier-Stokes, I am skeptical of how much we would be willing to pay OpenAI to do research on "niche scientific areas"?

You can also just draw lots.

Robots that replace auto industry factory workers exist; the CEO of GM didn't imagine them as part of some sort of business media induced psychotic episode.

The same is not true for the software industry execs.

Amazon lost a cumulative 2.8 billion over their first 17 quarters.

So if you're asking about time, then amazon stopped a lot faster. OpenAI is 40 quarters old.

If you are asking about money, then amazon... also stopped a lot faster. OpenAI is losing money comparable to amazon's lifetime losses every quarter.

If you want to play games like that, you could also flip it around and ask if the AI would have been eventually fired (assuming no one knew they were talking to a computer).

Not sure what that proves.

If you can make it 800 you can claim to be a 100x engineer!

Say what you want about nazis, but they are good at rockets.

But Google didn't go public until 2004, when they were highly profitable.

Every startup goes through a phase where they aren't profitable... For most of of them that ends when they go bankrupt.

Didn't xAI basically donate the compute for that quarter so Anthropic could get to say they turned a profit?

But then go right back to being unprofitable again afterwards, which is a little weird.

They don't want to build trust. They want to build a trust wedge between the people making the buying decisions and the people with hands on experience of the product.

When an employee says AI isn't speeding up his work, the only thing the CEO hears is "Wow, this employee is so scared of getting replaced that he's lying about how great AI is" and he will pick up the phone to Anthropic to buy more licenses.

It's sort of brilliant actually. No way to make a product grow fast enough without bypassing the employees and targeting the decision layer directly.

So, it's like if they were a pharma company that was barely profitable if you didn't take into account R&D costs?

Sounds like a healthy industry, selling tokens at 1000x below cost.