Kenji

`p(doom)` is ridiculous nonsense. How do people even come up with those numbers? Some people just say "I think it's 20% that AI will wipe us out" but how did they arrive at this number? Yeah they just made it up out of thin air, that's right. Complete fabrication without any evidence to back up such a probability. It's not like an asteroid whose trajectory you measure and you have certain instrument tolerances and measurement inaccuracies, hence the laws of physics tell you that your prediction has a 20% accuracy. No, it's all just made up bullshit. Just like all the AI safety guys: They're professional bullshitters and have been all along. Doesn't mean they're wrong per se, but it means that if they're right, they're right because they guessed right.