Indy_Dh
Joined 15 years ago
Joined 15 years ago
Whats interesting to me is how big the spread is until the 1900s where not only is the blossom date trend increasing, but the individual blossom dates are grouping much closer together as well. I wonder if this is an error in measurement or if there is natural explanation for this variance reduction in the last 100 years.
In other words he was afraid of being hated on for opening the dialogue, but the people on the Slack channel were fully willing to engage.
Actually in CA, many groceries are not subject to sales tax, just FYI. I'm not sure where the distinction is drawn, but it seems like the less processed the food the less likely it will be taxed.
There may be reviewers who do not generally fit the bimodal distribution, but if they are the minority, why design your whole rating system around them? Better to optimize your system for the way most of your users behave.
While I agree with the general sentiment of your post, I find quote does not actually work out in practice.
I have been in many situations (ie around family, coworkers, etc) where the group has a strong opinion about something and I feel the opposite. I would usually not chime in and let the conversation move on, but when people ask your opinion, there is a decision. As far as I can see, the options are basically:
1) Lie: not authentic or direct honesty 2) Avoid/Deflect: maintain authenticity, not direct honesty 3) Fein disinterest: lacking authenticity, not direct honesty 4) Express your dissent: authentic, direct honesty
The only options for maintaining authenticity are to be directly honest, or to not answer, and there is a limit to the extent you can avoid answering direct questions and still maintain freedom and conserve your energy and focus.
So while I agree that you don't have to be brutally honest to be authentic, I would say they are far from orthogonal. Sometimes choices have to be made, especially around people who have a tendency to pry or ask your opinion a lot.
As for the Omori distribution, I do not know anything about it, but I have studies similar distributions for predicting future Olympic running records,tallest human alive, etc, and these types of distributions rarely produce practically feasible results. If this model works well, I will be thoroughly impressed.
The only field that I know which deals with extreme events is Ruin Theory, but it is currently a very limited field. It may be possible for someone to adapt the field to study Macroeconomics, but even that may not be very informative.
At humanities current understanding of economics, I would argue that Black Swan Theory is the only practical way to understand huge economic shifts. Perhaps we will understand economic markets well enough to develop more complicated models, but that seems far in the future.
Q-Q plot: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Q-Q_plot Ruin Theory: http://www.worldscibooks.com/etextbook/5943/5943_chap01.pdf
Also, this article is using Pizza Pizza as an example. If a large chain is failing so miserably, I am sure other companies are hurting badly from poor web development.
I also went to the volcano and the hike is about 3/4 of a mile and moderately steep. If your children are active they should be able to handle it, but the key is to wear shoes with good traction. Also they sell wine at the top, which is nice :)