Discombulator

From my understanding, Taleb criticizes the native use of synthetic quantitative models with strong assumptions like VaR because they give a wrong picture of the real risks. But I don’t think that his point is that risk management is worthless.

On the other hand, employers are also barred from colluding to keep wages artificially low, which arguably would be considered a “negotiation strategy” if one follows your interpretation.

I agree though that employers have naturally more negotiation power in the vast majority of cases.

All disciplines studying complex systems like societies down to something like the human body, simply do not have the luxury of absolute truths like in mathematics or even the ability to run experiments like in physics (often for ethical reasons, e.g., in medicine or economics).

But does that mean that it is not worth doing?

For these fundamental reasons economics is “hard”, but I argue that it is still worth doing because economic policies have a big impact on people’s lives, and partial understanding is better than nothing.

Good advice, thanks for sharing.

I’d just keep in mind that there are no guarantees that kids will share our passions, even with the best approach. Humans are complex systems - it is very hard (and you would need need a lot of data) to make any general statement about things like this.

I’m not doubting the facts you mention and the amount of the hypothetical subsidy might be on average in the low two digit dollar range. The overall point is however that the App Store restriction was known at the time of purchase, so demanding to remove it without compensation is unfair.

(What would you say if your employer or client demands to pay a bit less after signing a contract with you?)

My last course in competition law was a while ago, but I remember this: while there are many differences in detail between the US and the EU approach, the broad strokes are the same.

Also in the EU, having a monopoly is not illegal (as long as it was obtained fairly) - abuse of monopoly power is.

Surely being a monopolist means you are subject to additional rules, no doubt about that.

But when you bought it, you knew of those restrictions, right?

A fully unrestricted phone might have cost more (because it is not cross subsidized by App Store profit), so it is unfair to demand full functionality at the subsidized price.

Whatever the true cost is, the argument is spurious: Apple is not forced to provide this service at cost (or with a “reasonable” markup), they can charge in any case what they want.

Telegram should rather make a convincing argument why Apple should be considered a monopolist, which is not clear to me given the overall <30% market share of Apple in the phone market.

I am at this point not convinced that you are actually trying to understand, but if you read the text you linked, it says:

> If a plan is fully funded, the minimum required contribution is the cost of benefits earned during the year.

The USPS however, needs to fund not only the current year’s expenses, but also all expenses for the 50 following years. No one else needs to do this.

That is a comforting thought, but the “tough / law and order / war on drugs” response has already been tried extensively under president Calderón, and the result was an explosion in violence and killings, without overall reducing the power of cartels.

Unfortunately it is not that simple.

What you are considering a disadvantage is seen as a strength by others (myself included): you pay only for what you use. No cross-subsidization to services you don’t need!

While the topic is interesting, I don’t think the analysis presented in the article series (at least in the first two articles) is particularly compelling.

For one, it relies much on hypotheses about internal though processes, which makes it basically unfalsifiable. Then the author is in my view shooting himself in the foot with the bowling analogy, namely by describing how he noted that he didn’t improve anymore and went to ask a colleague for advice. How would the same not be possible or even likely for the “expert beginner”?

All of this is much more easily and briefly explained by motivation - for many people in technology, technology is simply not a passion! For them it is just a tool and like also the article mentions, there are few reasons in many companies to spend more time on perfecting your craft - in fact, it might be strictly worse than building career-enhancing relationships. This is especially true as someone not in a technical position is often not able to assess the quality of the output.

Very similar story here; I barely write any Perl nowadays but am still very fond of it.

I especially like the sigils - they serve in a way as a primitive type system and actually convey useful information when reading code. I suspect people who complain about them are the same who dislike strong typing.

Interestingly, like you, nowadays I am very fond of Scala.