DennisP

Joined 19 years ago

Karma
19,542
Submissions
7,900
Member since
Sep 21
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Recent submissions

Comment · 5 minutes ago
Plus a good business can often get better returns by reinvesting profits than its investors are likely to get on their own. Investors always have the option to sell shares when they think that's not the case.
Comment · 8 hours ago
People should really look at cash flow statements instead of just earnings. Anthropic published one and their cash flow was positive for the first half of this year.

That doesn't mean all the circular financing won't be a problem, but people keep drawing the wrong conclusions from the negative earnings, which are relevant to investors but not so much to the viability of the business.

Comment · 1 day ago
I saw a comment saying it is, and having a coding agent able to modify a running environment is a game changer, but I haven't wrapped my head around that yet.
Comment · 1 day ago
Bad for hyperscalers. Good for Nvidia.
Comment · 3 days ago
Help with health issues is turning into a big one.

My mother-in-law has a complicated set of medical conditions and sees half a dozen different doctors. Fable with max thinking came up with a bunch of interactions between drugs and conditions that her doctors hadn't considered. We've run its recommendations by one doctor so far and he agreed with everything.

My brother has one friend who used a frontier AI to diagnose his wife's uncommon cancer, and insisted on a test for that. It was correct and she's fine now since they caught it early. Brother has another friend whose wife had back pain after surgery; medical team didn't find what was wrong, he uploaded the scan, and the AI said "oh they left in a staple," which turned out to be correct.

I've started using it to work on a cookbook for the medically prescribed diet I'm on.

Comment · 10 days ago
Comment · 11 days ago
I would classify training and research more as capital investment than overhead.
Comment · 12 days ago
Contrary to popular belief, plenty of long-term profitable businesses have no moat. It's just that if you use Warren Buffett's investment strategy and want to buy stocks to keep for decades, companies with moats are the surest way of doing that.
Comment · 12 days ago
That seems an uncharitable assumption. I for one strongly object both to today's abuses and the treatment of Snowden, and GP may well feel the same.
Comment · 13 days ago
That's Starshield, which is not under Musk's control. Reportedly the WH did make the decision.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/order-limit-starshield-...

It's the same tech but after Musk took flack for making a decision on Ukraine's military use, they split off a portion for the US government to control.

Comment · 13 days ago
Comment · 13 days ago
This is a superhero origin story if I've ever seen one.
Comment · 13 days ago
Yes, and since so many apparently edible things are quite harmful, it seems reasonable to be cautious about new ones.
Comment · 14 days ago
For the first few years they were just doing design work, and it's hard to say how much effort they were putting in since their focus back then was Falcon; the first Falcon 9 landing was 2015, and the first Falcon Heavy flight was 2018. For Starship they didn't even decide on stainless steel until 2019.

Comparing apples to apples, this seems to be the appropriate starting point for N1:

> Studied and designed by OKB-1 since 1959, it was the counterpart to the US Saturn V

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/N1_(rocket)

First launch was 1969. Starship's first launch was in 2023, so it took one extra year from initial concept to launch.

Starting from first launch, N1 did four launches in three years and never succeeded. Starship did 15 launches in three years, had multiple mission successes in which they achieved orbital velocity but had planned a suborbital trajectory, and then orbited on the 15th launch. Their first mission reaching orbital velocity was in 2024.

Also worth mentioning that a lot of the Starship work focuses on full reusability, a quite difficult problem which N1 did not attempt.

Comment · 15 days ago
They might not consider the cold gas thrusters to be particular trade secrets. They're very simple devices.

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