Cookingboy

That’s precisely my point, Muse isn’t a new product space at all. AI agents already exist in enterprises and even in the consumer space, there is OpenClaw and Hermes.

I know people like you will point out Metaverse as a failure, but that’s really the exception instead of the norm.

Everyone made fun of Zuck when he acquired Scale for billions and then put Alex Wang, a 20 something to be in charge of Meta Superintelligence and forced out Yann LeCun, a Turing Award winner.

Even industry insiders were skeptical when he started hiring top talents from other labs away for 9 figure compensation packages.

And Wall Street definitely hated Meta for their CapEX spending.

Now looking at Muse the consumer product and this new model, I think there is a good chance that Zuck is proven once again as a great executioner, especially when they aren’t innovating in a completely new and unproven product space.

Yeah it even admitted that Biden won the 2020 election. I'm honestly surprised haha.

That "training cost" is just live revenue count for Anthropic/OpenAI API calls!

/s

2.6-pro just reached 63.7% by step 10, it's on step 11 right now.

Even flash reached 60.7% by step 12, and it's on step 16 now.

This is so exciting lmao.

> much less protections in terms of well-being (no federal minimum wage, absurd work hours as standard, etc)

There absolutely is minimal wage but is set by local governments, because different places have different cost of living.

There are better protections for work hours for salaried workers than America. Anything above 40 hours get paid at 1.5X and anything above 60 hours get paid at 2x.

For layoffs in China, you have to pay N+1 of months of salary in terms of severance. N being the number of years an employee has been there.

And talking about absurd work hours, SK and Japan aren't better than China.

So China overall has far better labor rights protection than the U.S.

But not all machines are the same?

If you were ever trapped on the top floor of a burning building, should we just send a car up there?

Nobody is surprised by advancement like this, but there is still a lot of engineering that went into it, not talking about how it’s now almost consumer grade tech that you can buy.

>I don't know why this is so hard for HN to understand.

There are businesses other than FAANG. I don't know why this is so hard for FAANG employees to understand.

Then I pick the country that hasn't been bombing people and starting wars nonstop over the past 40 years.

Hint: It's not the U.S.

Sure you can doubt the motivation of the speaker, but remember the validity of the argument itself is orthogonal to the speaker’s identity.

If that’s the case businesses would be seeing millions to billions of profit gain (or cost reduction) in the past 4 months as they went from Opus 4.6 to Fable 5.

But that’s simply not the case. It’s very clear that vast majority of the business do not generate additional value from incremental intelligence gain from these models.

There is a reason why Chinese open weight models are now popular even in American enterprises, because CTOs realize that they are indeed good enough.

Except Fable won’t be costing $100 for enterprises that will be considering the Chinese models.

If $100 Claud Max subscription works for you, then great.

But you have to remember your pricing is subsidized by enterprises that pay hundreds of thousands of dollars each month, if not more, to Anthropic.

For those companies, a Chinese model that can cut their AI spend from $1M/month to $200k suddenly seems attractive.

And unfortunately for the American tech industry, the valuation is based off those enterprise deals, not your $100/month Claude Max subscription.

That’s the thing, the difference is so small that you won’t be wasting an hour per day with a model that’s 95% as good. In fact, you’d notice zero difference most of the days and when you do, maybe it’s an extra 30 minutes.

And the price difference is far greater than $2k/month once the API cost is no longer subsidized.

Would your employer be paying an extra $20k/month to Anthropic if it can save you 2 hours a month?

That doesn’t make sense. It’s not like SOTA models are error free, yet we still use them.

You use Fable 5 right? If that’s good enough for you now, why wouldn’t a Chinese model that’s as good as Fable 5 but at 10% the cost be good enough in 6 months?

>So why would I want to switch to even worse model?

There would be no reason to if you are in the privileged position where cost isn't an issue.

For the rest of us something that's 95% as good for 20% the price is a hell of a value proposition.