ArtTimeInvestor

The stock price did not move.

So nothing was eased.

There is none yet.

If there was one, someone would write down the steps necessary and put them on the internet. But I have never seen a sound description of how to self-custody Bitcoin in a safe way.

The hardest part seems to not even be the one that currently creates all those problems - the hardware and software used. The hardest part is storing the key (for example a seed phrase). If anyone says they know a way to safely store Bitcoin, my first question is: How do you store the key?

There is no solution yet.

From a bird's-eye perspective, 3 things are needed: Create a key, derive an address from the key, store the key.

Creating a key safely is possible with dice. You would probably create a seed phrase instead of a key directly, but for this discussion it is the same.

Deriving an address from the key is hard and I have not yet seen a good protocol on how to do it. I have read through a bunch of descriptions of how people do it and they are all weak and brittle. The most popular seems to be "I order a hardware wallet and follow the instructions that come with it". But even people who put a lot of thought into it come up with weak and brittle approaches. I would think there is a way to do it safely. But I have never seen a description of one yet. It might involve multiple computers, multiple software implementations and a hell of a lot of work to create a multisig that is not prone to a single attack vector.

Storing the key is probably the hardest. The most popular way seems to be to store it in a drawer or a safe. So now those coins are just as safe as a piece of gold would be. Or they use a multisig and store the keys in multiple locations. Quite painful. As you have the ongoing problem of keeping those locations accessible and safe at the same time.

Hardware wallets are not a solution to self-custody.

If one would make a list of things that can go wrong, starting from the supply chain that delivers parts to the manufacturer, malicious employees at the manufacturer, mistakes the manufacturer can make, attacks on the delivery chain from the manufacturer to the user, to mistakes the user can make creating, using and storing their keys - the list would contain hundreds of points.

I know Apple phones had bugs. Even worse bugs than the one you linked to.

But Google phones had those too.

That's why I said I "feel" like Apple takes security more seriously. And that I wish there were hard facts. Statistics of number of bugs by severity. Independently verified.

A good security track record must be the most valuable company asset in history.

Apple makes $200B per year from selling the iPhone alone. Plus the services they sell on it, plus deals like the one with Google, plus app store ads, plus cross-selling of other hardware ...

I have one too.

Not because I like the hardware too much. Pixel phones are much nicer, they don't wobble when you put them on a table. Not because I like the software too much. Android is much more to my liking with more freedom to customize it.

But because I have the feeling Apple takes security more seriously.

I wish there was some kind of security arena like there is LLM arena for AI. That gives hard facts about the security track record of phone manufacturers.

    The CEO is the throughline in a history
    of billion-dollar blunders

Since the IPO, he created an annual ROI of 21% for his investors. Taking risks means blunders are part of the way I would say.

For comparison:

He outperformed the Nasdaq 100 which made 18% (plus dividends) in the same time.

And he way outperformed Warren Buffet who made 14% in the same time.

> good luck getting your counter-parties to pay for your exports

It's not a matter of choice. Once a country runs on US artificial intelligence, it can't just say "Well, let's do things manually again". People won't know how to do it anymore. There will be no more keyboards, steering wheels or cash registers to operate.

It's true that China might offer an alternative. But changing a country from being run by US AI to being run by Chinese AI is not a small feat and comes with its own issues.

> US doesn't even produce the chips

TSMC is running and expanding a factory in Arizona. Budget: $265 billion. Intel, Samsung and Miron are also building capacity in the USA.

> that AI will remain dominated by USA

The USA has managed to dominate software for decades now. Why would it change? Take a look at the current datacenter investments in the USA vs other countries. It looks very much like the USA will even extend its lead.

> why would they want to default on their debts

So they don't have to share the AI profits with foreigners who hold shares in the AI companies.

How is the situation with Bitcoin?

Do Europeans have options to hold Bitcoin in ETFs, ETPs etc that are not storing the coins in the USA?

Or Bitcoin. Of which almost half is already under US control.

Anyhow, much of the new currency will flow to the USA if the USA becomes the worlds source of (artificial) intelligence.

The USA might hold a majority of the worlds value generation in a few decades. If AI generated in the USA powers everything. Then the USA does not need to borrow anymore.

The dangerous situation we are in is that entities outside of the USA hold significantly more US assets than US entities own assets outside the USA.

So if the USA declares "ownership be damned", it would be a net win for the USA.

Or in simpler terms: The USA has been giving out IOUs for real goods for decades. It is now tempting to default on those IOUs. The USA did this before. Up until 1971, a dollar certified a claim to gold. Then the USA simply canceled that promise.

The current ramp up to AI dominance might be what holds the USA back from breaking more ties with the world. It is a race that must be won. And investments from abroad help. But when the whole world is operated by US AI factories things might look different. When every task around the world is performed by intelligence generated in the USA, just like every computer is run by US software now - there might be little incentive left to "pay the rent" for the rest of the world that now sits around idle, fiddling their thumbs.