The estimate is that 80% of all effort in software goes to maintenance of existing systems, of which 21% goes into bug fixing:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_maintenanceWith every new system successfully brought online by one programmer, they are creating a future need for four programmers to maintain that system.
Just to keep the existing body of software afloat, the existing body of programmers is dramatically insufficient. We have known this problem for decades. You will find lots of old papers raising exactly this issue.
Concerning developing countries, to an important extent they have already been absorbed into the global workforce. Certainly India is already supplying its best and its brightest. Only a limited percentage of the workforce is capable of working as a programmer. Furthermore, developing countries increasingly consume their own supply of software services. Therefore, third-world supply may already be largely exhausted.
With the world increasingly dependent on software (Has it every been increasingly dependent on lawyers?) stopping to hire programmers pretty much means scrapping systems on which organizations depend. This happens all the time already, but the net effect is still to add new systems.
With every new system successfully brought online by one programmer, they are creating a future need for four programmers to maintain that system.
Just to keep the existing body of software afloat, the existing body of programmers is dramatically insufficient. We have known this problem for decades. You will find lots of old papers raising exactly this issue.
Concerning developing countries, to an important extent they have already been absorbed into the global workforce. Certainly India is already supplying its best and its brightest. Only a limited percentage of the workforce is capable of working as a programmer. Furthermore, developing countries increasingly consume their own supply of software services. Therefore, third-world supply may already be largely exhausted.
With the world increasingly dependent on software (Has it every been increasingly dependent on lawyers?) stopping to hire programmers pretty much means scrapping systems on which organizations depend. This happens all the time already, but the net effect is still to add new systems.