Say a proper Bayesian who's a fan of 'da Bears' just saw the bears lose again, badly. How is he supposed to update these two beliefs:
- this season 'da Bears' will tear shit up every Sunday (fwiw assume prior on this has it as likely)
- I am usually over-optimistic about 'da Bears''s performance (fwiw assume prior on this also has it as likely)
...in light of the new evidence?
(Side note: I'm specifically not talking about bayesian analysis or statistics in a formal setting with a prespecified, finite list of allowed hypotheses (like spam or ham).
If I wrote this out in extreme detail I'd get nothing done today, I think you can charitably fill in the gaps and missing pieces of what I'm getting at; if not I'll fill them out in a few.)
- this season 'da Bears' will tear shit up every Sunday (fwiw assume prior on this has it as likely)
- I am usually over-optimistic about 'da Bears''s performance (fwiw assume prior on this also has it as likely)
...in light of the new evidence?
(Side note: I'm specifically not talking about bayesian analysis or statistics in a formal setting with a prespecified, finite list of allowed hypotheses (like spam or ham).
If I wrote this out in extreme detail I'd get nothing done today, I think you can charitably fill in the gaps and missing pieces of what I'm getting at; if not I'll fill them out in a few.)