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Comment by Hermel

Rising interest rates make it unattractive to hold long-term bonds. For example, when interest rates jump from 3% to 4%, the net present value of 10-year bond drops by 10%. So as soon as investors believe that the turning point has come, the rational reaction is to sell bonds, amplifying the raise in interest rates even more.

But where will they put that money instead? Letting it sit around in cash is not a wise idea because oftentimes, rising interest rates come hand in hand with inflation. Your best bet is to buy something of "real" value, be it gold, real estate, or stocks. In my opinion, this could explain the growing divergence between stocks and bonds. At least for a while, I would expect this to continue and stocks to go up with bonds falling, or at least stocks not fall as much as bonds.

Then again, it is very hard to predict such things.

parent Hermel 11 years ago

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