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Comment by vubuntu

I agree with the parent poster that the participant's awareness of whether the host acted randomly or made an informed decision is critical for the participant to decide whether set B's 2/3 probability shifted/concentrated into the one unopened door in set B or whether set B's overall probability got reduced.

I can illustrate this with a variation to demonstrate that revealing a goat in the door is not that important compared to whether the host knowingly opened that door. For example, say the host blasted the door (and it's contents) instead of opening and revealing what's inside. Now it becomes critical to know whether the host randomly blasted it or whether it is guaranteed that he would never blast a door with car inside it. That knowledge rather than the 'reveal' of what's inside the door he selected (to open or blast) is what influences my decision to recalculate or keep the probability of set B.

parent vubuntu 11 years ago

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