The notion of black swan events is rubbish. The theory makes no sense.
Even if it was a logical theory that had coherence not sure how it fits here.
We know countries unify. We know what happens. You can be sure North and South will one day unify.
Yes the only question is when. Prepare to early = big loss. Prepare to late = a loss.
It's just about creating a sensible plan on how to deal with something we don't have a timeline on.
When will a building have a fire? Who knows, just make a sensible plan for pre and post when it happens. You don't need to call it a black swan. It's just risk management.
Even if it was a logical theory that had coherence not sure how it fits here.
We know countries unify. We know what happens. You can be sure North and South will one day unify.
Yes the only question is when. Prepare to early = big loss. Prepare to late = a loss.
It's just about creating a sensible plan on how to deal with something we don't have a timeline on.
When will a building have a fire? Who knows, just make a sensible plan for pre and post when it happens. You don't need to call it a black swan. It's just risk management.