Comment by gwern

If anyone is curious, my old analysis ( http://www.gwern.net/Google%20shutdowns ) gives an estimate of 70% for Firebase surviving another 5 years:

    R> firebase <- data.frame(Product="Firebase", Dead=FALSE, Started=Sys.Date(), Ended=NA, Type="program", Profit=TRUE, FLOSS=FALSE, Acquisition=TRUE, Social=FALSE, Days=1, AvgHits=NA, DeflatedHits=mean(google$DeflatedHits), AvgDeflatedHits=NA, EarlyGoogle=FALSE)
    R> conditionalProbability(firebase, 5*365.25)
    [1] 0.693911886