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Comment by jjoonathan

Because it's nearly tautological: everyone on that list got there for some reason. The fact that a majority of those reasons weren't entirely made up isn't an indication of their quality as predictors of espionage.

Since we now have access to the ground truth we can compute the actual false positive rate. The great-grandparent post suggests that such an examination would vindicate McCarthy, but I have trouble sympathizing with this view. A 94% false-positive rate (96% if you use McCarthy's original figure) is bad no matter how you slice it.

parent jjoonathan 12 years ago

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