I'm not sure if your question is rhetorical (‘please, do it’) or not (‘is is possible?’) but, yes, it should be possible to find lower bounds of such events, by multiplying:
- estimates of meteroid paths (per year); tenths of thousands;
- estimates of people sky-diving (per year); 3 millions; Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/skydiving-statistics/
- time of one jump; minutes, say two;
- time of one meteroid drop; minutes, say two;
- length in meters of a typical jump; 3,000;
- length in meters of a drop; 20,000;
- and the square of an estimate of visibility boxes — say meters across —; 1000 m^3;
divided by:
- a year; 525,948 minutes;
- Earth’s jumpable atmosphere (that's the whole thing) squared: 3×10^24 m^3 (Wolfram Alpha).
My take is that the over-all volume of atmosphere and that meteroids can drop at anytime makes it extremely unlikely: an order of 10^-35 with my very rough estimates. 10^30 years of jumping would not make it likely. Even by estimating millions of asteroids shattering in millions of pieces, that even should be rarissime even considering the length of human species’ history.
More parameters, such as the fact that people tend to jump when there is daylight or pay attention to the landscape, certainly counts.
If you compare to how many cameras are in the ground, we should have seen a meteoroid last meters much sooner. So, if statistical disappointing skepticism is to be considered, what makes all those camera unlikely candidate appears that they are too stable and generally face other cameras and the ground were the stone might be recovered. It doesn’t make that video fake; it’s just that, using a Bayesian framework, it comes off as incredibly unlikely not to have been done using editing.
It makes it all the more spectacular if it were. I’m guessing the camera makers can easily tell that from the recording on the device.
Please — correct my math, reasoning or any assumption: I certainly got most of it wrong.
- estimates of meteroid paths (per year); tenths of thousands;
- estimates of people sky-diving (per year); 3 millions; Source: http://www.statisticbrain.com/skydiving-statistics/
- time of one jump; minutes, say two;
- time of one meteroid drop; minutes, say two;
- length in meters of a typical jump; 3,000;
- length in meters of a drop; 20,000;
- and the square of an estimate of visibility boxes — say meters across —; 1000 m^3;
divided by:
- a year; 525,948 minutes;
- Earth’s jumpable atmosphere (that's the whole thing) squared: 3×10^24 m^3 (Wolfram Alpha).
My take is that the over-all volume of atmosphere and that meteroids can drop at anytime makes it extremely unlikely: an order of 10^-35 with my very rough estimates. 10^30 years of jumping would not make it likely. Even by estimating millions of asteroids shattering in millions of pieces, that even should be rarissime even considering the length of human species’ history.
More parameters, such as the fact that people tend to jump when there is daylight or pay attention to the landscape, certainly counts.
If you compare to how many cameras are in the ground, we should have seen a meteoroid last meters much sooner. So, if statistical disappointing skepticism is to be considered, what makes all those camera unlikely candidate appears that they are too stable and generally face other cameras and the ground were the stone might be recovered. It doesn’t make that video fake; it’s just that, using a Bayesian framework, it comes off as incredibly unlikely not to have been done using editing.
It makes it all the more spectacular if it were. I’m guessing the camera makers can easily tell that from the recording on the device.
Please — correct my math, reasoning or any assumption: I certainly got most of it wrong.