A prediction I'll write down to check in two years:
My guess is that at some point Arch and Fedora will "officially" become Systemd/GNU/Linux (Systemd will become the required and system-equivalent component) while Ubuntu will start working hard on creating a sane, modular equivalent.
Basically with init, dbus (now migrating into the kernel), logging, authorization, resource control, networking, etc. the only big thing left to control is software installation. I expect Systemd-package to pop up soon. It's going to be convenient, technically good enough to adopt and integrated enough that some projects will become pretty much not installable on other systems without hacking the build (think replacing makefiles or something similar). It may be even a slightly-incompatible systemd-rpm.
The place where systemd will be annoying the most is servers - currently most of what they do concentrates on desktops. Specialised VMs will suffer from bloat of unneeded functionality (journal, dynamic networking, dbus, cgroups integration (people that need it will do it manually anyway), user sessions, ...) and this is the first place where replacements will start.
(deleted parent was wondering what will happen first: people freaking out that systemd becomes too integrated, or systemd becoming too integrated to create a linux system without it)
My guess is that at some point Arch and Fedora will "officially" become Systemd/GNU/Linux (Systemd will become the required and system-equivalent component) while Ubuntu will start working hard on creating a sane, modular equivalent.
Basically with init, dbus (now migrating into the kernel), logging, authorization, resource control, networking, etc. the only big thing left to control is software installation. I expect Systemd-package to pop up soon. It's going to be convenient, technically good enough to adopt and integrated enough that some projects will become pretty much not installable on other systems without hacking the build (think replacing makefiles or something similar). It may be even a slightly-incompatible systemd-rpm.
The place where systemd will be annoying the most is servers - currently most of what they do concentrates on desktops. Specialised VMs will suffer from bloat of unneeded functionality (journal, dynamic networking, dbus, cgroups integration (people that need it will do it manually anyway), user sessions, ...) and this is the first place where replacements will start.
(deleted parent was wondering what will happen first: people freaking out that systemd becomes too integrated, or systemd becoming too integrated to create a linux system without it)