If by "win" you mean "be in the top 5 grossing", there may be some meat here. But it would be surprising for an independent anything to break into the top 5 grossing in any market, software or otherwise, in a few years.
But if by "win" you mean "earn a comfortable living and possibly modest riches" then I doubt this thesis has any legs at all.
But if by "win" you mean "earn a comfortable living and possibly modest riches" then I doubt this thesis has any legs at all.