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Comment by vinceguidry

How would an economist get information about a bubble? Magic? Until they burst, anything you could say about them is speculative. Everyone talks about how education is the next big one, but education and real estate are such different markets they might as well be on different planets. It's impossible to know what's going to happen until it happens.

The housing bubble caught a lot of really smart people off guard. Housing was overpriced, but it's been overpriced for years. You had to have special, insider information about just what sorts of crazy tricks were being pulled behind the scenes, and you had to understand that it wasn't sustainable and what would happen once people started defaulting. Looks easy in hindsight, but you go out there and try to predict what's going to happen in two years.

parent vinceguidry 13 years ago

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