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Comment by torr

We've been living with Moore's law so long that young people seem to think it's similar to an actual law like gravity.

Fact is, computing has benefitted from some core technologies (ex. lithography) that have lended themselves to order-of-magnitude increases in things like number of transistors per square cm. It's been a happy coincidence, but, inevitably, that ship has about finished its trip and is heading back to the dock.

Here's what will happen (and is happening) when hardware hits that limit: pretty much nothing. People will still use computers for email, browsing the web, watching videos, numerically solving partial differental equations, etc. There will be no clamour to make faster computers because computers are pretty much fast enough for what we want them to do. If they're not fast enough, then tasks can be spread out and handled in a distributed manner.

Oh, also, computer hardware companies will find that they can't get you to upgrade every few years to get the latest and greatest. This is great news, btw, for, say, schools; since they'll be able to invest in computers and expect to keep them long enough to be worth the investment.

parent torr 17 years ago

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