Comment Comment by jcampbell1 It is a bit more complicated than that. Below is my stab:- Probability that social media users are fickle and Tumblr is on a death march where no plan could fix the business: 20%- Probability MM has a good plan, given that Tumblr's employees and investors didn't have a plan to turn it into a real business: 30%- Probability that Yahoo can execute the plan, given they have a good one: 50%Thus P(This ends badly for Yahoo) = 1- .8 * .3 * .5 => 88% parent jcampbell1 13 years ago
- Probability that social media users are fickle and Tumblr is on a death march where no plan could fix the business: 20%
- Probability MM has a good plan, given that Tumblr's employees and investors didn't have a plan to turn it into a real business: 30%
- Probability that Yahoo can execute the plan, given they have a good one: 50%
Thus P(This ends badly for Yahoo) = 1- .8 * .3 * .5 => 88%