Comment by icelancer

As someone who has written 10k+ loc on simulators, markov chaining, and done tons of analysis on baseball projections... I don't know where to start.

I honestly don't. (You are very, very far off the correct methodology.)

But maybe this is a good place, I guess.

http://www.oakton.edu/user/4/pboisver/AABaseballMath.html

I am not trying to be a jerk. But ask yourself: If it were that trivial, why wouldn't it be a snap to crush online sportsbetting?