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Comment by jerf

Are they?

    jerf@jerfhom:~$ python
    Python 2.7.3 (default, Sep 26 2012, 21:51:14) 
    [GCC 4.7.2] on linux2
    Type "help", "copyright", "credits" or "license" for more information.
    >>> import random
    >>> 94.0/(94+68)
    0.5802469135802469
    >>> winp = 94.0/(94+68)
    >>> games = []
    >>> for x in range(50):
    ...     games.append('w' if random.random() < winp else 'L')
    ... 
    >>> ''.join(games)
    'wLwLwwwwwLwLwLwwwLLLwLwwLwLLLwwLwwwwwLwwwLwwLLwLLw'
In my full simulation of 162 games, the longest streak was a 7 game losing streak, despite the higher win percentage. Of course you'll get different results each run; my next run produced a 9 game winning streak, which some quick Googling suggests is in line with what happened in 2010.

Combine this with the fact that real play is not drawn uniformly (you may play a much worse team against which you have a much better win percentage for several games in a row) and I don't see much need for some sort of meaningful, statistically-predictive "streak" to explain game results.

parent jerf 13 years ago

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