Great take and useful for the thought experiment.
I just feel like your taking it all as a given/fact. And maybe you’re right, but I’m not that well versed into it to say things for sure.
What I'm trying to get at is that if we’re considering a black swan event, why not consider both the bull and the bear case or even the neutral one and at least accept that we don’t know which one it will be and it may well be a coin toss…
Perhaps using “cancer” deviated things into a specific subject, but it could be anything. A drug discovery, quantum computing, etc.
Again, I’m no quantum physicist or chemist, but as a world citizen, these feel within the realm of possibilities. Just like it destroying humanity or simply just being yet another technological advancement like the computer or the internet was.
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I guess the people working on computers could have argued there was a 10% chance it was going to end humanity and so the people working on the internet because AI was going to come about.
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I’d say that my final conclusion is that we don’t really know and the signals we’re getting from founders, investors, the market, here, and other people we talk to is that NOBODY KNOWS. All we can do is to continue to speculate and make bets based on hunches.
I just feel like your taking it all as a given/fact. And maybe you’re right, but I’m not that well versed into it to say things for sure.
What I'm trying to get at is that if we’re considering a black swan event, why not consider both the bull and the bear case or even the neutral one and at least accept that we don’t know which one it will be and it may well be a coin toss…
Perhaps using “cancer” deviated things into a specific subject, but it could be anything. A drug discovery, quantum computing, etc.
Again, I’m no quantum physicist or chemist, but as a world citizen, these feel within the realm of possibilities. Just like it destroying humanity or simply just being yet another technological advancement like the computer or the internet was.
—-
I guess the people working on computers could have argued there was a 10% chance it was going to end humanity and so the people working on the internet because AI was going to come about.
—
I’d say that my final conclusion is that we don’t really know and the signals we’re getting from founders, investors, the market, here, and other people we talk to is that NOBODY KNOWS. All we can do is to continue to speculate and make bets based on hunches.