I believe Google is the most likely to survive the bubble bursting. They have significant cash flow from other sources and have likely insulated themselves by using SPVs for a lot of their debt. It's true that they've invested a lot of their own cash but they've also rented a lot of GPUs from SpaceX and elsewhere and I think that's probably a good idea.
Additionally, Google is very good at building and managing data centers (including their own networking hardware) and they even have alternatives to NVidia through their longstanding TPU hardware. It can't compete with NVidia's best offerings for sure but it gives them a path to independence.
I believe SpaceX will be merged with Tesla at some point when things turn south. OpenAI? I don't know what their future is. These mega-IPOs just seem like desperate attempts to cash out before it all comes crashing down.
The real problem is that there is no moat. Chinese labs have seen to that. And I believe that it's the policy of the Chinese government that nobody, especially a US tech company, ends up "owning" or "winning" the AI race.
And on the hardware front, China is building their own alternatives as they've been forced to develop EUV/DUV lithography from scratch [1].
I just don't see how OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX survive. Then again, Tesla shouldn't survive either but here we are. As they say, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...
Additionally, Google is very good at building and managing data centers (including their own networking hardware) and they even have alternatives to NVidia through their longstanding TPU hardware. It can't compete with NVidia's best offerings for sure but it gives them a path to independence.
I believe SpaceX will be merged with Tesla at some point when things turn south. OpenAI? I don't know what their future is. These mega-IPOs just seem like desperate attempts to cash out before it all comes crashing down.
The real problem is that there is no moat. Chinese labs have seen to that. And I believe that it's the policy of the Chinese government that nobody, especially a US tech company, ends up "owning" or "winning" the AI race.
And on the hardware front, China is building their own alternatives as they've been forced to develop EUV/DUV lithography from scratch [1].
I just don't see how OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX survive. Then again, Tesla shouldn't survive either but here we are. As they say, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/how-china-built-its-manh...