> Reading tea leaves, the market believes that whomever is first to AGI will reap all the benefits, leaving nothing to the runners-up.
If "the market" believes this, I'd love for "the market" to explain to me how they think this works in practice.
Like if Anthropic hits AGI on Monday, what stops Google or OpenAI from hitting AGI on Tuesday?
There is no substantial difference in capabilities between any of these models, they are all doing the tiniest little leapfrogs over each other from release to release.
Even if the market thinks this leads to AGI, there is no reason to believe any secret magic exists that makes one of them reach AGI without the rest hitting AGI nearly immediately after.
If "the market" believes this, I'd love for "the market" to explain to me how they think this works in practice.
Like if Anthropic hits AGI on Monday, what stops Google or OpenAI from hitting AGI on Tuesday?
There is no substantial difference in capabilities between any of these models, they are all doing the tiniest little leapfrogs over each other from release to release.
Even if the market thinks this leads to AGI, there is no reason to believe any secret magic exists that makes one of them reach AGI without the rest hitting AGI nearly immediately after.