your point is well-taken enough, but the idea that a sharp investor was investing in Yahoo or Myspace in 2006 is a bit silly. Myspace was bought out in 2005, and it had been dead for years before that. and I don't think I had gone to yahoo.com for any reason other than testing my internet connection anytime in the prior 10 years before that. also, investing in Google or Facebook back then would be enough to retire on, much less had you invested in a basket of tech-but-not-obviously-dead-tech stocks. from what I recall from that era, the one things I knew for sure at the time were (1) Google is gonna be around in 20 years, bigly and (2) Facebook might be DoA in terms of social media endgame, but operationally they are very strong and executing.
what I really push back on is the idea that there are magically going to be all sorts of entrants into the space that meaningfully compete with Anthropic or OpenAI in the near or even medium term. for as much as the reddit set continues to put their collective heads in the sand while screaming "there's no moat"... there is a moat, and one so prominent as to be self-evident. not once has an open-source model come even close to genuinely reaching frontier performance for anything other than cost, and cost is by definition the easiest thing to improve on-- just distill bigger model into smaller model: boom, cheaper!
what I really push back on is the idea that there are magically going to be all sorts of entrants into the space that meaningfully compete with Anthropic or OpenAI in the near or even medium term. for as much as the reddit set continues to put their collective heads in the sand while screaming "there's no moat"... there is a moat, and one so prominent as to be self-evident. not once has an open-source model come even close to genuinely reaching frontier performance for anything other than cost, and cost is by definition the easiest thing to improve on-- just distill bigger model into smaller model: boom, cheaper!