Before we start this debate, let me state from the outset that I have been installing AOSP derivatives on my own phones since 2015, and I don't want to disparage all the hard work being done by the volunteers at LineageOS, GrapheneOS, and the other custom ROMs.
However, if the long-term goal is digital freedom and user empowerment, dependence on Google puts us in a very precarious position, and I suspect that Google and the phone brands will keep turning the screws and making it harder and harder for the AOSP-derivatives to keep operating, because the business model of the mobile industry is changing from planned obsolescence to surveillance capitalism and the monetizing of people's personal data. The tech giants are in a fierce race to collect as much of our personal data as possible in order to train their LLMs. Although the current AI bubble will pop, just like the Internet bubble popped in 2001-2, that didn't stop the Internet from becoming the predominant paradigm for the tech industry, and AI will probably follow a similar trajectory, so I don't think the financial incentives to collect our personal data for targeted advertising and AI training will stop.
As I explained in my previous article on Linux phones, the smartphone brands that permit unlocking of the bootloader have dropped from 42.5% to 7% of the market in recent years. The brands which allow their bootloaders to be unlocked (without major restrictions like Xiaomi) only sold about 87 million phones in 2025, including Lenovo/Motorola (60M), Google (12M), OnePlus (11.6M), Nothing (2M), GigaSet (>1M), Sony (400k), Fairphone (145k), SHIFT (10k), Teracube, Volla and Brax. The number of new phones sold in 2025 that have official LineageOS ports and aren't locked by carriers is probably around 20 million phones or 2% of the global smartphone market, and that number will probably drop to 10 million per year as Motorola keeps switching more of its phones away from Snapdragon processors, OnePlus is pulling out of Europe and North America and Nothing is cutting staff and will probably pull out of many markets. In other words, our ability to install custom ROMs will keep being restricted. For people living in Iran and most of Africa, there is not a single new phone on the market that has an official LineageOS port. In some African countries (Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Eygpt), most of Latin America (except Mexico) and most of Asia (except Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia), they only have one new phone on the market with an official LineageOS port, which is the Motorola Moto G15 that was released in December 2024.
We are becoming increasingly dependent on Google for both the software and hardware to run AOSP phones. For most of the world, Motorola is the only option to install an AOSP derivative, which means waiting 3 to 14 days just to unlock the bootloader, or buying a used Xiaomi and dealing with Xiaomi's insane policies to get an unlock code.
We need to support the Linux phone companies, because we have no idea how much longer Google will continue to release AOSP, and we are totally screwed if Motorola or Google change their bootloader unlock policies. None of your arguments convince me that the community can maintain an AOSP fork with 309 million lines of code, whereas we know that the Phosh and Plasma Mobile interfaces and the existing mobile Linux distros like SailfishOS, Ubuntu Touch, Nura, Mobian, DanctNIX, Droidian, etc. can be maintained by the community.
OK, let me try to address some of your specific points in subsequent comments below.
However, if the long-term goal is digital freedom and user empowerment, dependence on Google puts us in a very precarious position, and I suspect that Google and the phone brands will keep turning the screws and making it harder and harder for the AOSP-derivatives to keep operating, because the business model of the mobile industry is changing from planned obsolescence to surveillance capitalism and the monetizing of people's personal data. The tech giants are in a fierce race to collect as much of our personal data as possible in order to train their LLMs. Although the current AI bubble will pop, just like the Internet bubble popped in 2001-2, that didn't stop the Internet from becoming the predominant paradigm for the tech industry, and AI will probably follow a similar trajectory, so I don't think the financial incentives to collect our personal data for targeted advertising and AI training will stop.
As I explained in my previous article on Linux phones, the smartphone brands that permit unlocking of the bootloader have dropped from 42.5% to 7% of the market in recent years. The brands which allow their bootloaders to be unlocked (without major restrictions like Xiaomi) only sold about 87 million phones in 2025, including Lenovo/Motorola (60M), Google (12M), OnePlus (11.6M), Nothing (2M), GigaSet (>1M), Sony (400k), Fairphone (145k), SHIFT (10k), Teracube, Volla and Brax. The number of new phones sold in 2025 that have official LineageOS ports and aren't locked by carriers is probably around 20 million phones or 2% of the global smartphone market, and that number will probably drop to 10 million per year as Motorola keeps switching more of its phones away from Snapdragon processors, OnePlus is pulling out of Europe and North America and Nothing is cutting staff and will probably pull out of many markets. In other words, our ability to install custom ROMs will keep being restricted. For people living in Iran and most of Africa, there is not a single new phone on the market that has an official LineageOS port. In some African countries (Kenya, South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana and Eygpt), most of Latin America (except Mexico) and most of Asia (except Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, India and Malaysia), they only have one new phone on the market with an official LineageOS port, which is the Motorola Moto G15 that was released in December 2024.
We are becoming increasingly dependent on Google for both the software and hardware to run AOSP phones. For most of the world, Motorola is the only option to install an AOSP derivative, which means waiting 3 to 14 days just to unlock the bootloader, or buying a used Xiaomi and dealing with Xiaomi's insane policies to get an unlock code.
We need to support the Linux phone companies, because we have no idea how much longer Google will continue to release AOSP, and we are totally screwed if Motorola or Google change their bootloader unlock policies. None of your arguments convince me that the community can maintain an AOSP fork with 309 million lines of code, whereas we know that the Phosh and Plasma Mobile interfaces and the existing mobile Linux distros like SailfishOS, Ubuntu Touch, Nura, Mobian, DanctNIX, Droidian, etc. can be maintained by the community.
OK, let me try to address some of your specific points in subsequent comments below.