> I am saying benchmarking against peers is what investors commonly do.
You are benchmarking against an outlier stock with a cult following (Elon Musk) and diversified sources of revenue. Anthropic does not have either.
If it was as easy as comparing the hottest new IPO with Elon's companies and applying the same multiples, people wouldn't have lost so much money on electric car IPOs that pretended to be Tesla (see PSNY -99.5%; NKLA -99.99%; FSRNQ -99.99%; etc.).
> being "right" is rarely how markets value companies.
Conventional metrics are how most stocks are valued most of the time. What you want to say is that market can be exuberant sometimes. That's fair. When the exuberance goes away, valuations come back to earth (see PSNY -99.5%; NKLA -99.99%; FSRNQ -99.99%; etc.).
> That "correct" model is going to be less predictive than a model that starts from what similar firms are trading at in public markets.
Even if we take your statement at face value, you're still not doing it right. A valuation based on comparisons has to have more than 1 peer to compare against. Check out the multiples of other model providers listed on the stock market. You'll probably be shocked that it's not a double digit multiple of revenue.
And then, if you really want to have a proper model, isolate the AI revenues of SpaceX and other hyperscalers, then we can argue that you have a model worth something.
You are benchmarking against an outlier stock with a cult following (Elon Musk) and diversified sources of revenue. Anthropic does not have either.
If it was as easy as comparing the hottest new IPO with Elon's companies and applying the same multiples, people wouldn't have lost so much money on electric car IPOs that pretended to be Tesla (see PSNY -99.5%; NKLA -99.99%; FSRNQ -99.99%; etc.).
> being "right" is rarely how markets value companies.
Conventional metrics are how most stocks are valued most of the time. What you want to say is that market can be exuberant sometimes. That's fair. When the exuberance goes away, valuations come back to earth (see PSNY -99.5%; NKLA -99.99%; FSRNQ -99.99%; etc.).
> That "correct" model is going to be less predictive than a model that starts from what similar firms are trading at in public markets.
Even if we take your statement at face value, you're still not doing it right. A valuation based on comparisons has to have more than 1 peer to compare against. Check out the multiples of other model providers listed on the stock market. You'll probably be shocked that it's not a double digit multiple of revenue.
And then, if you really want to have a proper model, isolate the AI revenues of SpaceX and other hyperscalers, then we can argue that you have a model worth something.