> Even if the overall productivity boost due to AI "only" turns out to be 40%, the lowest among your numbers, it's equivalent to 17 years of growth at 2% per year.
Two reasons to question the 40% number:
- Anthropic probably represents the extreme case of AI adoption, if they're not the absolute leader. I would see 40% as the absolute max for that category without knowing anything else.
- Anthropic is a tech company, willing to change their workflows rapidly, having maximal enthusiasm for the technology, and maximum knowledge of it. The vast majority of the world's companies don't come close to it for these aspects and therefore adoption and speed should lag significantly compared to Anthropic.
Two reasons to question the 40% number: