Commits per engineer 5.1x
Queries per data scientist 3.1×
Contracts per legal employee 3.1x
Deals per salesperson 1.7x
Hires per recruiter 1.4x
Invoices per AP processor 1.4x
These are the stats that might be hiding the possibly
small potential for AI to generate "real" economic activity.
The first 3 stats, commits+queries+contracts, are secondary/meta statistics that could possibly go up 1000x and have very little affect on Anthropic's business, whereas that's much less likely to be the case with the last 3.
AI can make it very easy to do more and more busywork that doesn't move the needle.
If the above is true, AI econ must rely on a second order effect here in that busywork/BS is recognized more quickly and discontinued.
For example, if an organization paid an employee to compile a monthly report and it took them a very long time. But with AI, they can make that report every day. Now the organization realizes that they don't even need it.
The first 3 stats, commits+queries+contracts, are secondary/meta statistics that could possibly go up 1000x and have very little affect on Anthropic's business, whereas that's much less likely to be the case with the last 3.
AI can make it very easy to do more and more busywork that doesn't move the needle.
If the above is true, AI econ must rely on a second order effect here in that busywork/BS is recognized more quickly and discontinued.
For example, if an organization paid an employee to compile a monthly report and it took them a very long time. But with AI, they can make that report every day. Now the organization realizes that they don't even need it.