Basically on the bet that an incoming Trump executive would stir trade relations with China; they would start pulling levers; and the sector gets a much needed boost when Governments act as that market was essentially rigged. I hold small long-term positions in a spread of incumbent, mid-value and speculative penny stocks. Lynas was once a penny stock, and two geopolitical events over the years have now pushed it to be a S&P/ASX 50 company.
For Northern in particular - they have a binding offtake agreement with Iluka for everything they mine, and Iluka are 60-70% towards completing their processing plant (with a huge Government backed loan) by mid next year. The issue the last few years is the intense interest from CCP-linked entities who currently hold ~27% of the shares and have attempted to take over the board multiple times. The Government has so far been willing to intervene, but it's set them back at a time that the funding to push for a FID was much more readily available.
Iluka have also had hiccups as there was a 6 month delay while they requested additional money to meet costs (it's harder and more expensive to source the required plant equipment without China) and their existing business of zircon and titanium products is also struggling as China was a major customer.
For Northern in particular - they have a binding offtake agreement with Iluka for everything they mine, and Iluka are 60-70% towards completing their processing plant (with a huge Government backed loan) by mid next year. The issue the last few years is the intense interest from CCP-linked entities who currently hold ~27% of the shares and have attempted to take over the board multiple times. The Government has so far been willing to intervene, but it's set them back at a time that the funding to push for a FID was much more readily available.
Iluka have also had hiccups as there was a 6 month delay while they requested additional money to meet costs (it's harder and more expensive to source the required plant equipment without China) and their existing business of zircon and titanium products is also struggling as China was a major customer.